COTTON

General Comments:  Futures closed higher as traders reacted to the poor weather and the deficit deal in Wahsington.  Traders also remain concerned about demand, and there has been little or no export demand reported by USDA in recent weeks.  Countries like India are still offering Cotton at prices below those seen in the US.  But, supply should become an issue now.  Bad weather in the US is still around, with little rain in the forecast for major growing areas this week.  It is very hot in the Cotton areas of Texas.  No relief from the drought appears likely this week after the tropical storm from last week did little good.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will be mostly dry or will get a few showers, mostly in the Southeast.  Temperatures will average above to much above normal.  Texas will be mostly dry.  Temperatures will average above to much above normal.  The USDA average spot price is now 108.49 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.013 million bales, from 0.013 million yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 109.00 and 117.00 October.  Support is at 99.00, 95.00, and 94.00 October, with resistance of 110.00, 112.00, and 116.00 October.

DJ ICE Cotton Speculation And Hedging Report - Aug 1
     For Jul 29 long and short positions in contracts.
SPECULATION      LONG   ACCTS     PCT   SHORT   ACCTS     PCT
  Total        61,248   1,139    42.6  41,205   1,124    28.7
HEDGING
  Total        82,401     274    57.4 102,444     270    71.3 
GRAND TOTAL:  143,649   1,413   100.0 143,649   1,394   100.0
08/01 15:00 CDT U.S. weekly crop progress highlights - USDA
WASHINGTON, Aug. 01 (Reuters) - Highlights of the U.S. Agriculture
Department's weekly crop progress report (all numbers expressed in percent):
 Week ended                    07/31/11  07/24/11  07/31/10   5-year
    COTTON CONDITION
  - Excellent                      5         4        18       N/A
  - Good                          25        25        48       N/A
  - Fair                          30        30        25       N/A
  - Poor                          18        18         7       N/A
  - Very Poor                     22        23         2       N/A
    COTTON SQUARING               90        79        96        92
    COTTON SETTING BOLLS          62        46        68        62
FCOJ
General Comments:  Futures closed a little higher again yesterday in quiet trading.  Weather and the debt deal in Washington provided the support.  Charts show that trends turned up again last week, then failed to hold the uptrend.  A new tropical system is forming in the Atlantic near Trinidad that could move close to Florida in several days.  It is too far away to give any accurate estimates of what could happen, if anything.  Florida for now remains mostly warm and is getting scattered showers.  Brazil is also seeing moderate temperatures and episodes of scattered showers for now. 
Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers and storms.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   
Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 194.00, 192.00, and 190.00 September, with resistance at 202.00, 205.00, and 208.00 September.
DJ ICE FCOJ Speculation And Hedging Report - Aug 1
     For Jul 29 long and short positions in contracts.
SPECULATION     LONG   ACCTS     PCT   SHORT   ACCTS     PCT
  Total       23,268     587    64.1   7,068     176    19.5
HEDGING
  Total       13,044      93    35.9  29,244      79    80.5 
GRAND TOTAL:  36,312     680   100.0  36,312     255   100.0

COFFEE 

General Comments:  Futures were a little higher in all markets yesterday, with many traders buying as the deficit talks came to a deal on Sunday night.  No one otherwise seems real interested in the coffee market right now.  Brazil is still shipping coffee, but there is not much coming from Central America.  Certified stocks keep dropping, but inventories overall in the US and Europe appear ample.  Europe and the US are now in vacation times and seeing less demand.  Weather remains good in Brazil, with moderate temperatures and mostly dry weather.  Roasters are said to be well covered for now, but will soon start looking for Fall shipments.  Many buyers will need to be back from vacations within the next couple of weeks.  Charts show that a low could be forming in New York.  The current weather forecasts for Brazil call for much cooler weather later this week, but not cold enough to hurt crops.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.531 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 200.06 ct/lb.  Brazil should see mostly dry weather, but a few showers are possible in the south.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 238.00, 233.00, and 230.00 September, and resistance is at 242.00, 244.00, and 247.00 September.  Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 2060, 2020, and 1985 September, and resistance is at 2120, 2150, and 2200 September.  Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed.  Support is at 309.00, 307.00, and 294.00 September, and resistance is at 326.00, 327.00, and 328.00 September.

SUGAR                                                            

General Comments:  Futures closed lower in New York and in London yesterday in liquidation trading tied to weak manufacturing data in the US.  Traders are waiting for news from Washington before doing too much.  Both markets are seeing the fundamental emphasis change a little bit.  Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but this news has been known for quite a while now.  However, production in other parts of the world seems strong.  Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time.  In fact, India is being asked by its mills to allow more exports, and prices in Thailand have been moving lower.  Demand is said to be falling as buyers are not willing to pay current very high prices. 

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.  India might allow exports of another 500,000 tons of Sugar this year.  The Indonesia Sugar Association now estimates 2011 production at 2.57 million tons, from its previous estimate of 2.70 million tons, due to weather damage.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2810 October.  Support is at 2820, 2770, and 2700 October, and resistance is at 3000, 3060, and 3160 October.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 772.00 and 740.00 October.  Support is at 770.00, 766.00, and 744.00 October, and resistance is at 791.00, 796.00, and 815.00 October.

 

COCOA                                                                 

General Comments:  Futures were a little lower in New York and a little higher in London on what appeared to be speculative trading related to US Dollar moves.  Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa created some selling pressure, but the region is now between harvests so offers are less.  Speculators were the best buyers, and origin remains quiet.  Trends are still down overall on the charts.  For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally.  Fundamentals have not really changed.  Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average above normal.  ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 4.176 million bags. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2950 September.  Support is at 2950, 2920, and 2880 September, with resistance at 3050, 3120, and 3155 September.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 1800and 1760 September.  Support is at 1830, 1825, and 1790 September, with resistance at 1900, 1920, and 1960 September.