COTTON

General Comments:  Futures closed higher as traders reacted to the poor weather and the deficit deal in Washington.  Funds were buyers and appeared to be buying for chart related reasons.  Traders also remain concerned about demand, and there has been little or no export demand reported by USDA in recent weeks.  Countries like India are still offering Cotton at prices below those seen in the US, and the government is now allowing unrestricted exports for the next couple of months.  But, supply should become an issue now.  Bad weather in the US is still around, with little rain in the forecast for major growing areas this week.  It is very hot in the Cotton areas of Texas.  No relief from the drought appears likely this week and crop losses in the state should be significant this year, and some traders think a squeeze could form against December futures once the delivery period gets close.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will be mostly dry or will get a few showers, mostly in the Southeast.  Temperatures will average above to much above normal.  Texas will be mostly dry.  Temperatures will average above to much above normal.  The USDA average spot price is now 110.05 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.013 million bales, from 0.013 million yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 109.00 and 117.00 October.  Support is at 101.00, 100.00, and 99.00 October, with resistance of 110.00, 112.00, and 116.00 October.

FCOJ

General Comments:  Futures closed a little higher again yesterday in quiet trading.  Charts show that trends are mostly sideways for now.  A new tropical system has formed in the Atlantic that should move close to Florida in several days.  It is still too far away to give any accurate estimates of what could happen, if anything.  For now, the system does not appear strong enough to form a hurricane, but it could bring some strong amounts of rain to Florida depending on the track the storm chooses to follow.  Florida for now remains mostly warm and is getting scattered showers.  Brazil is also seeing moderate temperatures and episodes of scattered showers for now. 

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers and storms.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 200.00, 194.00, and 192.00 September, with resistance at 202.00, 205.00, and 208.00 September.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack - Aug 2
   In gallons. Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC).
                               2010-2011
                         Jul 23        Jul 16      Year Ago
  MOVEMENT
Retail                  134,389       142,866       327,392
Institutional           345,573       357,706       376,424
Bulk                  1,489,298     1,592,116     2,300,422
Total                 1,969,261     2,092,688     3,004,239
Cumulative          127,313,435   125,344,175   105,068,136
  IMPORTS
Foreign                 100,668        65,171        62,228
Cumulative           14,429,829    14,329,161    20,259,657
  RECEIPTS
Domestic                 97,449         7,507       672,829
  PACK
Retail                  159,722       144,223       170,321
Institutional           416,062       307,942       394,232
Bulk                    622,940       445,496       734,587
Less Reprocessed      1,198,724       897,661     1,299,140
Net                           0             0             0
Cumulative           82,091,651    82,091,651    82,252,237
Inventory            68,801,692    70,433,595   118,163,767

COFFEE 

General Comments:  Futures were higher in all markets yesterday, in part on forecasts for colder weather the rest of the week in Brazil.  However, forecasts do not call for any damaging cold at all.  Traders are looking for reasons to buy and sell, and there are not all that many out there for either side.  Brazil is still shipping coffee, albeit less than in the last few months, but there is not much coming from Central America.  Certified stocks keep dropping, but inventories overall in the US and Europe appear ample.  Weather remains good in Brazil.  Roasters are starting to look for Fall shipments.  Charts show that a low could be forming in New York and that London seems to be developing a short term trading range.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are about unchanged today and are about 1.531 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 201.76 ct/lb.  Brazil should see mostly dry weather, but a few showers are possible in the south.  Temperatures will average near to below normal, but warmer this weekend.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 242.00, 238.00, and 233.00 September, and resistance is at 248.00, 253.00, and 256.00 September.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 2110, 2060, and 2020 September, and resistance is at 2150, 2175, and 2200 September.  Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed.  Support is at 309.00, 307.00, and 294.00 September, and resistance is at 326.00, 327.00, and 328.00 September.

SUGAR                                                            

General Comments:  Futures closed lower in New York and in London again yesterday in liquidation trading tied to weak economic data in the US and around the world and demand worries.  Both markets are seeing the fundamental emphasis change a little bit, and this is now being reflected in flat prices and spreads.  Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but production in other parts of the world seems strong.  Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time.  In fact, India is being asked by its mills to allow more exports, and prices in Thailand have been moving lower.  Demand is said to be falling as buyers are not willing to pay current very high prices.  The ship lineup in Brazil ports has diminished, which is considered an indication of weakening demand. 

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil.  Temperatures should be near to above normal. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2810 October.  Support is at 2770, 2730, and 2700 October, and resistance is at 2910, 2930, and 3000 October.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 748.00 October.  Support is at 744.00, 731.00, and 726.00 October, and resistance is at 768.00, 770.00, and 776.00 October.

 

COCOA                                                                 

General Comments:  Futures were lower in New York and a little lower in London on mostly speculative selling against industry scale down buying.  Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa keep the selling pressure around, but the region is now between harvests so offers are less.  Trends are still down overall on the charts.  For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally.  Fundamentals have not really changed.  Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average above normal.  ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 4.191 million bags.  Ivory Coast arrivals are now estimated at 1.366 million tons, up 24.1% from last year. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2900 and 2830 September.  Support is at 2920, 2880, and 2870 September, with resistance at 2980, 3050, and 3120 September.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 1800and 1760 September.  Support is at 1850, 1825, and 1790 September, with resistance at 1900, 1920, and 1960 September.