COTTON

General Comments:  Futures closed lower as traders reacted to surprisingly high production data from USDA.  Traders anticipated product ion near 15.29 million bales, but USDA estimated production at 16.554 million bales.  The financial markets remained in turmoil, but stocks rallied to help support Cotton futures a little bit.  Chart trends still show a negative bias.  Demand remains soft.  Countries like India are still offering Cotton at prices below those seen in the US, and the government is now allowing unrestricted exports for the next couple of months.  Bad weather in the US is still around, with little rain in the forecast for major Texas growing areas for the next week.  It is very hot in the Cotton areas of Texas.  No relief from the drought appears likely and crop losses in the state should be significant this year.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get showers and storms.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Texas will be mostly dry today but should get some precipitation this weekend.  Temperatures will average above normal.  The USDA average spot price is now 96.42 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.014 million bales, from 0.014 million yesterday.  USDA said its world market Upland Cotton price is now 87.78 ct/lb.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 95.00, 94.00, and 90.00 October, with resistance of 100.00, 101.00, and 104.00 October.

FCOJ

General Comments:  Futures closed higher yesterday as world equities markets recovered.  Charts show that trends are down for now, but futures appear very oversold.  Florida for now remains mostly warm and is getting scattered showers.  Brazil is also seeing moderate temperatures and episodes of scattered showers for now.  Charts show that the three day move lower has been extreme and that a rebound is possible at any time. 

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers and storms.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives.  Support is at 157.00, 154.00, and 151.00 September, with resistance at 163.00, 166.00, and 169.00 September.

COFFEE 

General Comments:  Futures were higher yesterday as traders wrestled with all of the turmoil seen in world financial markets.  This time stock markets moved sharply higher.  Weather in Brazil is good.  Warmer temperatures are expected for much of the week, but it could turn cold again at the end of the week, although not cold enough to freeze.  Brazil is still shipping coffee, albeit less than in the last few months, but there is not much coming from Central America except for some final shipments.  Certified stocks keep dropping, but inventories overall in the US and Europe are good.  Roasters are starting to look for Fall shipments.  Charts show that trends turned down again this week, but prices remain very close to objectives for the move.  

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.496 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 202.41 ct/lb.  Brazil should see mostly dry weather, but a few showers are possible in the south.  Temperatures will average near to above normal this week, but cooler this weekend.  Colombia exported 458,000 bags of Coffee in July, from 612,000 bags last year.  It produced 530,000 bags of Coffee in July, from 787,000 bags last year.  It has produced 4.5 million bags so far this calendar year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 237.00, 232.00, and 230.00 September, and resistance is at 246.00, 248.00, and 253.00 September.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 2335 and 2550 September.  Support is at 2175, 2150, and 2110 September, and resistance is at 2200, 2230, and 2260 September.  Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with objectives of 304.00 and 270.00 September.  Support is at 307.00, 294.00, and 293.00 September, and resistance is at 317.00, 323.00, and 326.00 September.

SUGAR                                                            

General Comments:  Futures closed higher in New York and in London yesterday as world equity markets moved much higher.  Fundamentals still seem to be more negative than just a few months ago.  Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but production in other parts of the world seems strong.  It seems that the weather in Brazil has improved, so most of the crop losses should be known by now.  However, UNICA cut Center South Brazil production potential to 31.57 million tons, from its previous estimate of 32.38 million tons.  Second half July production increased 1.8% from last year to 2.82 million tons.      Exports of sugar were also revised lower to 22.32 million tons, down 3.5 percent from July export estimates of 23.13million tons and 24.64 million tons of sugar shipped during last season's crop.  Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time.  Demand is said to be falling as buyers are not willing to pay current very high prices.  The ship lineup in Brazil ports has diminished, which is considered an indication of weakening demand.  Thai export sources are telling wire services that export premiums have already fallen quite a bit in the last few weeks and should fall more as supplies increase in Asia.  India will permit another 500,000 tons of Sugar exports, bring the total offer this year to 1.5 million tons. 

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.    

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2700, 2680, and 2640 October, and resistance is at 2835, 2870, and 2910 October.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 738.00, 731.00, and 728.00 October, and resistance is at 768.00, 770.00, and 776.00 October.

 

COCOA                                                                 

General Comments:  Futures were higher in New York and lower in London in consolidation trading.  Cocoa is trying to find a bottom as futures have already fallen quite a bit since the end of the war and the elections.  Spreads between September and December were noted as positions get rolled forward before September deliveries start next week.  Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa keep the selling pressure around, but the region is now between harvests so offers are less.  Trends are still down overall on the charts.  For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally.  Fundamentals have not really changed.  Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market.  Ideas are that current weather patterns in Africa are not good and that production in western Africa can drop next year. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average above normal.  ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 4.099 million bags.    

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2770 and 2640 September.  Support is at 2810, 2800, and 2730 September, with resistance at 2870, 2880, and 2920 September.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1825, 1790, and 1760 September, with resistance at 1860, 1900, and 1920 September.