COTTON

General Comments:  Futures closed sharply higher after trading limit up earlier in the day.  Funds and other speculators were the best buyers and mills and merchants were the best sellers.  The speculators were buying mostly on strength in the outside markets and weakness in the US Dollar.  Chart trends show a neutral bias.  Demand remains soft.  Countries like India are still offering Cotton at prices below those seen in the US, and the government is now allowing unrestricted exports for the next couple of months.  Bad weather in the US is still around, with little rain in the forecast for major Texas growing areas for the next week.  It is very hot in the Cotton areas of Texas.  No relief from the drought appears likely and crop losses in the state should be significant this year.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions, but a few showers are possible late in the week.  Temperatures will average above normal.  Texas will be mostly dry, but some showers are possible across the Panhandle later this week.  Temperatures will average above normal.  The USDA average spot price is now 103.45 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.014 million bales, from 0.014 million yesterday.  

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 101.00, 100.00, and 99.00 October, with resistance of 105.00, 110.00, and 112.00 October.

08/15 15:00 CDT U.S. weekly crop progress highlights - USDA

WASHINGTON, Aug. 15 (Reuters) - Highlights of the U.S. Agriculture
Department's weekly crop progress report (all numbers expressed in percent):
 Week ended                    08/14/11  08/07/11  08/14/10   5-year
    COTTON CONDITION
  - Excellent                      5         5        16       N/A
  - Good                          26        25        46       N/A
  - Fair                          29        29        27       N/A
  - Poor                          19        19         8       N/A
  - Very Poor                     21        22         3       N/A
    COTTON SETTING BOLLS          88        79        90        84
    COTTON BOLLS OPEN             11         9        14        11
DJ ICE Cotton Speculation And Hedging Report - Aug 15
     For Aug 12 long and short positions in contracts.
SPECULATION      LONG   ACCTS     PCT   SHORT   ACCTS     PCT
  Total        58,537   1,112    41.5  42,262   1,180    29.9
HEDGING
  Total        82,641     257    58.5  98,916     255    70.1 
GRAND TOTAL:  141,178   1,369   100.0 141,178   1,435   100.0

FCOJ

General Comments:  Futures closed higher yesterday on speculative buying seen in most other commodities markets.  Several potential tropical storms have surfaced in the Atlantic in the last week.  However, none of the potential storms are likely to impact Florida if they develop at all.  One has missed any land in North America and is now past Bermuda and moving northeast.  The others do not appear to be threats to Florida in the near future if at all.  Charts show that trends remain down overall, but futures appear very oversold and the current short term recovery could continue.  Florida for now remains mostly warm and is getting scattered showers.  Brazil is also seeing moderate temperatures and episodes of scattered showers for now.  Charts show that the recent moves lower has been extreme and that a rebound is possible at any time and could have started Friday. 

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers and storms.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives.  Support is at 164.00, 159.00, and 157.00 September, with resistance at 172.00, 173.00, and 175.00 September.

DJ ICE FCOJ Speculation And Hedging Report - Aug 15
     For Aug 12 long and short positions in contracts.
SPECULATION     LONG   ACCTS     PCT   SHORT   ACCTS     PCT
  Total       13,860     387    52.2   5,475     207    20.6
HEDGING
  Total       12,710     109    47.8  21,095      58    79.4 
GRAND TOTAL:  26,570     496   100.0  26,570     265   100.0

COFFEE 

General Comments:  Futures were higher yesterday along with other commodities markets and on the lower US dollar.  News for coffee markets was harder to find, but there is a lot of talk that Vietnam has sold all of the Robusta it has to sell for now.  Weather in Brazil is good, but other parts of Latin America could use improved weather.  It was too dry in Central America at flowering time and we have heard reports of too much rain again now in Colombia  Warmer temperatures are expected for much of the week in Brazil.  Brazil is still shipping coffee, albeit less than in the last few months, but there is not much coming from Central America except for some final shipments.  Certified stocks keep dropping, but inventories overall in the US and Europe are good.  Roasters are starting to look for Fall shipments.  Charts show that trends turned mixed again, and prices remain very close to objectives for the move.  

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are unchanged today and are about 1.493 million bags.  GCA stocks were 4.811 million bags at the end of July, from 4.559 million at the end of June.  The ICO composite price is now 206.85 ct/lb.  Brazil should see mostly dry weather.  Temperatures will average near to above normal this week, but cooler this weekend. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 240.00, 237.00, and 232.00 September, and resistance is at 246.00, 248.00, and 253.00 September.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 2550 September.  Support is at 2260, 2200, and 2175 September, and resistance is at 2340, 2350, and 2370 September.  Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed.  Support is at 317.00, 312.00, and 307.00 September, and resistance is at 323.00, 326.00, and 327.00 September.

SUGAR                                                            

General Comments:  Futures closed lower in New York and lower in London yesterday on what seemed to be more speculative long liquidation.  Speculators have been liquidating long positions now for the last couple of weeks on ideas of less demand.  There just has not been any news to excite the bulls lately.  News of less potential production from Brazil was offset by news of more exports from India.  Fundamentals still seem to be more negative than just a few months ago.  Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but production in other parts of the world seems strong.  Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time.  Demand is said to be somewhat better after the recent drop in prices.  The ship lineup in Brazil ports has diminished, which is considered an indication of weakening demand.  Thai export sources are telling wire services that export premiums have already fallen quite a bit in the last few weeks and should fall more as supplies increase in Asia. 

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.      

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2730, 2700, and 2680 October, and resistance is at 2820, 2835, and 2870 October.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 731.00, 728.00, and 715.00 October, and resistance is at 744.00, 748.00, and 768.00 October.

 

COCOA                                                                 

General Comments:  Futures were higher in New York and a little lower in London in consolidation trading.  Cocoa seemed to get most of its support from a weaker US Dollar and stronger equities.  Cocoa is trying to find a bottom as futures have already fallen quite a bit since the end of the war and the elections.  Spreads between September and December were noted as positions get rolled forward before September deliveries start later this week.  Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa keep the selling pressure around, but the region is now between harvests so offers are less.  Trends are still down overall on the charts.  For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally.  Fundamentals have not really changed.  Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market.  Ideas are that current weather patterns in Africa are not good and that production in western Africa can drop next year. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average above normal.  ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 4.064 million bags.    

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2770 and 2640 September.  Support is at 2870, 2810, and 2800 September, with resistance at 2920, 2955, and 2980 September.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1825, 1790, and 1760 September, with resistance at 1860, 1900, and 1920 September.