COTTON

General Comments:  Futures closed a little lower after a slow session.  It was mostly a consolidation trade with speculators on both sides of the market and hedgers not really on either side of the market.  Chart trends show a neutral bias.  Demand remains soft.  Countries like India are still offering Cotton at prices below those seen in the US, and the government is now allowing unrestricted exports for the next couple of months.  Bad weather in the US is still around, with little rain in the forecast for major Texas growing areas for the next week.  It is very hot in the Cotton areas of Texas.  No relief from the drought appears likely and crop losses in the state should be significant this year.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions, but a few showers are possible late in the week.  Temperatures will average above normal.  Texas will be mostly dry, but some showers are possible across the Panhandle later this week.  Temperatures will average above normal.  The USDA average spot price is now 103.01 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.014 million bales, from 0.014 million yesterday.  

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 101.00, 100.00, and 99.00 October, with resistance of 105.00, 110.00, and 112.00 October.

FCOJ

General Comments:  Futures closed higher yesterday in consolidation trading.  September was strongest as traders roll out of that month and into back months.  Several potential tropical storms have surfaced in the Atlantic in the last week.  However, none of the potential storms are likely to impact Florida if they develop at all.  One has missed any land in North America and is now past Bermuda and moving northeast.  The others do not appear to be threats to Florida in the near future if at all.  Charts show that trends remain down overall, but futures appear very oversold and the current short term recovery could continue.  Florida for now remains mostly warm and is getting scattered showers.  Brazil is also seeing moderate temperatures and episodes of scattered showers for now.  Charts show that the recent moves lower has been extreme and that a rebound is possible at any time and could have started Friday. 

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers and storms.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 164.00, 159.00, and 157.00 September, with resistance at 177.00, 179.00, and 183.00 September.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack - Aug 16
   In gallons. Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC). 
                              2010-2011
                         Aug 06        Jul 30      Year Ago
  MOVEMENT
Retail                  118,569       175,660       213,679
Institutional           349,808       362,834       317,124
Bulk                  2,883,193     1,478,407     2,049,759
Total                 3,351,570     2,016,901     2,580,562
Cumulative          132,681,906   129,330,336   110,252,710
  IMPORTS
Foreign                  76,624        68,522       477,544
Cumulative           14,574,975    14,498,351    20,799,782
  RECEIPTS
Domestic                  5,541        17,728        28,883
  PACK
Retail                  135,654       181,749       160,911
Institutional           323,065       413,645       334,559
Bulk                    627,713       558,021       668,429
Less Reprocessed      1,086,431     1,153,415     1,163,899
Net                           0             0             0
Cumulative           82,091,651    82,091,651    82,252,237
Inventory            63,529,306    66,847,441   113,610,791

COFFEE 

General Comments:  Futures were higher yesterday after a slow session.  There is a lot of talk that Vietnam has sold all of the Robusta it has to sell for now.  There are also reports of cherry drop in some areas there, although the affected area is supposed to be small.  Brazil is not selling much, and Central America and Colombia can only sell new crop as the old crop appears sold out.  However, industry is said to be covered for now.  Weather in Brazil is good, but other parts of Latin America could use improved weather.  It was too dry in Central America at flowering time and we have heard reports of too much rain again now in Colombia  Warmer temperatures are expected for much of the week in Brazil.  Chart trends remain up in London and turned up yesterday in New York and Sao Paulo.  

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.491 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 210.91 ct/lb.  Brazil should see mostly dry weather.  Temperatures will average near to above normal this week, but cooler this weekend. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 275.00 September.  Support is at 248.00, 246.00, and 240.00 September, and resistance is at 253.00, 256.00, and 259.00 September.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 2550 September.  Support is at 2260, 2200, and 2175 September, and resistance is at 2340, 2350, and 2370 September.  Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to up with objectives of 336.00, 350.00, and 362.00 September.  Support is at 323.00, 317.00, and 312.00 September, and resistance is at 328.00, 338.00, and 344.00 September.

SUGAR                                                            

General Comments:  Futures closed higher in New York and in London yesterday in quiet trading.  There just has not been any news to excite the bulls lately, and fundamentals still seem to be more negative than just a few months ago.  Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but production in other parts of the world seems strong.  Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time.  Demand is said to be somewhat better after the recent drop in prices.  The ship lineup in Brazil ports has diminished, which is considered an indication of weakening demand.  Thai export sources are telling wire services that export premiums have already fallen quite a bit in the last few weeks and should fall more as supplies increase in Asia. 

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.  Philippines has committed to sell 120,000 tons of Sugar to regional buyers and hopes to sell 200,000 tons for export this year.  Russia has produced 59,900 tons of Sugar from Beets so far this year, from 64,400 tons last year.  Mexico has exported 1.32 million tons of Sugar so far this year, more than triple the amount from last year.    

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2730, 2700, and 2680 October, and resistance is at 2850, 2870, and 2910 October.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 731.00, 728.00, and 715.00 October, and resistance is at 768.00, 770.00, and 776.00 October.

 

COCOA                                                                 

General Comments:  Futures were higher in New York and in London along with other softs markets.  Cocoa may have found a bottom as futures have already fallen quite a bit since the end of the war and the elections.  However, bears have been unable to push futures to new contract lows in the last week or two.  Spreads between September and December were noted as positions get rolled forward before September deliveries start Thursday.  Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa keep the selling pressure around, but the region is now between harvests so offers are less.  Trends are still down overall on the charts.  For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally.  Fundamentals have not really changed.  Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market.  Ideas are that current weather patterns in Africa are not good and that production in western Africa can drop next year. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average above normal.  ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 4.051 million bags.  Ivory Coast arrivals are now estimated at 1.384 million tons, up 23% from last year.    

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2920, 2880, and 2870 September, with resistance at 2980, 3005, and 3055 September.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1860, 1825, and 1790 September, with resistance at 1900, 1920, and 1960 September.