COTTON

General Comments:  Futures closed lower again yesterday after disappointing export sales in the weekly report from USDA and on an increase in unemployment claims released by the government.  Weather overall remains a supportive factor, and not just because of crop losses in Texas.  Chinese and Pakistani growing areas have hurt by rains, and it was hot this year in Uzbekistan.  Chart trends still show a neutral bias.  Demand remains soft.  Countries like India are still offering Cotton at prices below those seen in the US, and the government is now allowing unrestricted exports for the next couple of months.  Bad weather in the US is still around, with little rain in the forecast for major Texas growing areas for the next week.  It is very hot in the Cotton areas of Texas.  No relief from the drought appears likely and crop losses in the state should be significant this year.  Hurricane Irene should impact the Atlantic Coast and perhaps bring some bring rains inland to growing areas in the Southeast today and tomorrow, but ideas are that the hurricane will cause only minor damage to more mature crops and could help less mature crops.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions, but a few showers are possible.  Southeast coastal areas could get big rains and winds today or tomorrow from Hurricane Irene.  Temperatures will average above to much above normal.  Texas will be mostly dry, but some showers are possible in the Panhandle Monday.  Temperatures will average above to much above normal.  The USDA average spot price is now 100.21 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.015 million bales, from 0.015 million yesterday.  USDA said that its Upland Cotton weekly world market price is now 91.96 ct/lb. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 100.00 and 95.00 October.  Support is at 101.00, 100.00, and 99.00 October, with resistance of 105.00, 108.00, and 110.00 October.

FCOJ

General Comments:  Futures closed a little higher as traders remained concerned with Hurricane Irene.  It brought some significant rains and some winds to eastern parts of the state, but the main system will stay to the east and in the ocean.  Charts show that trends are down as the storm moves past the state.  There is not another tropical storm on tap for Florida after Irene moves by.  Florida is once again mostly warm and is getting scattered showers.  Brazil is seeing warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions. 

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers and storms.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 162.00 September.  Support is at 164.00, 159.00, and 157.00 September, with resistance at 170.00, 174.00, and 177.00 September.

COFFEE 

General Comments:  Futures were higher on light volume speculative buying.  Speculators were the best players on both sides of the market, and there was little in the way of news to support the move.  Industry and origin appeared to be quiet.  Brazil is not selling much, and Central America and Colombia can only sell new crop as the old crop appears sold out.  However, industry is said to be covered for now.  Weather in Brazil is good.  It was too dry in Central America at flowering time and reports of too much rain in Colombia.  Warm temperatures and dry conditions are likely into next week in Brazil.  Better weather is reported in Mexico and Central America as rains are more like normal.  Chart trends turned mixed for the short term in London, but remain generally up in New York and Sao Paulo.  

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.471 million bags.  ICE said that deliveries were 0 contracts today and now total 8 contracts for the month.  The ICO composite price is now 224.81 ct/lb.  Brazil should see mostly dry weather.  Temperatures will average above normal.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 278.00 December.  Support is at 273.00, 263.00, and 257.00 December, and resistance is at 277.00, 281.00, and 284.00 December.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 2320, 2280, and 2230 November, and resistance is at 2370, 2420, and 2430 November.  Trends in Sao Paulo are up with objectives of 362.00, 372.00, and 408.00 December.  Support is at 347.00, 338.00, and 335.00 December, and resistance is at 356.00, 358.00, and 360.00 December.

SUGAR                                                            

General Comments:  Futures closed lower in New York and in London yesterday on follow through speculative selling.  There might have been some industry and trade buying seen after futures made the lows of the day.  Reports that the crop in Brazil might get smaller provided support.  Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but production in other parts of the world seems strong.  China sold all the Sugar at offer at its auction this week, and there is talk that the country will need to import more to keep prices under some form of control.  Prices there are very high and supplies are thin in the domestic market.  Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time.  Chart trends turned down with the price action yesterday. 

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.  NICA said that the Sugarcane crush is now 297.6 million tons, down 12% from last year.  Brazil has produced 17.4 million tons of Sugar so far, down 11% from last year.  Ethanol production was 12 billion liters, down 19% from last year.  Philippines has exported 121,817 tons of Sugar so far this year.  It has supplies of 276,683 tons of Refined Sugar and 571,126 tons of Raw Sugar.     

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2820 October.  Support is at 2930, 2910, and 2890 October, and resistance is at 3000, 3060, and 3140 October.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 742.00 and 703.00 October.  Support is at 761.00, 758.00, and 748.00 October, and resistance is at 775.00, 785.00, and 797.00 October.

 

COCOA                                                                 

General Comments:  Futures were lower in New York and in London on what appeared to be some speculative long liquidation.  Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa keep the selling pressure around, but the region is now between harvests so offers are less.  Trends are trying to turn up on the charts.  For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally.  Next year could be different as many analysts say that crop production potential in western Africa has been hurt by some poor weather seen in the last month.  However, current supplies are ample and should help cover any short production potential for next year.. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average above normal.  ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 3.941 million bags.  ICE said that Cocoa deliveries are 0 contracts today and now total 2 contracts for the month.  Ivory Coast arrivals are now estimated at 1.38 million tons, up 22% from last year.  Ivory Coast exports are now 985,336 tons, from 836,024 tons last year. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3370 and 3600 December.  Support is at 3010, 2950, and 2910 December, with resistance at 3050, 3090, and 3150 December.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1890, 1855, and 1840 December, with resistance at 1935, 1975, and 1990 December.