COTTON

General Comments:  Futures closed lower again yesterday on macroeconomic issues and on ideas of poor demand.  It was another light volume session.  There has been no resolution to the US Debt issues through Sunday night, and this is starting to hurt Cotton.  Traders also remain concerned about demand, and there has been little or no export demand reported by USDA in recent weeks.  This has caused a lot of selling in nearby months from speculators, although this selling seemed to be running out of steam late last week.  Countries like India are still offering Cotton at prices below those seen in the US.  But, supply should become an issue now.  Bad weather in the US is still around, with little rain in the forecast for major growing areas this week.  It is very hot in the Cotton areas of Texas.  Demand remains poor and trends are down.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will be mostly dry or will get some showers or storms, mostly in the Southeast.  Temperatures will average above normal.  Texas will be mostly dry.  Temperatures will average above normal.  The USDA average spot price is now 102.99 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.018 million bales, from 0.046 million yesterday

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 93.00 and 88.00 October.  Support is at 95.00, 94.00, and 90.00 October, with resistance of 99.00, 100.00, and 101.00 October.

U.S. weekly crop progress highlights - USDA

   WASHINGTON, July 25 (Reuters) - Highlights of the U.S. Agriculture
Department's weekly crop progress report (all numbers expressed in percent):
 Week ended                    07/24/11  07/17/11  07/24/10   5-year
    COTTON CONDITION
  - Excellent                      4         4        19       N/A
  - Good                          25        24        49       N/A
  - Fair                          30        32        24       N/A
  - Poor                          18        19         6       N/A
  - Very Poor                     23        21         2       N/A
    COTTON SQUARING               79        71        92        87
    COTTON SETTING BOLLS          46        31        56        49
DJ ICE Cotton Speculation And Hedging Report - Jul 25
     For Jul 22 long and short positions in contracts.
     **Includeds adjustment(s) by reporting firm(s).
SPECULATION      LONG   ACCTS     PCT   SHORT    ACCTS     PCT
  Total        57,109   1,160    41.7  39,846**  1,101    29.1
HEDGING
  Total        79,768     286    58.3  97,031**    264    70.9 
GRAND TOTAL:  136,877   1,446   100.0 136,877    1,365   100.0

FCOJ

General Comments:  Futures closed mostly a little higher again yesterday in what appeared to be speculative trading tied mostly to chart patterns and a little bit to increasingly tight supplies.  Some selling once again related to good weather in Florida and Brazil was seen as well.  Charts show that trends turned up again last week, then failed to hold the uptrend.  No tropical storms are in the forecast that are likely to come anywhere near the state.  Florida remains mostly warm and is getting beneficial showers.  The rains now are very beneficial and are coming at the right time.  Brazil is also seeing moderate temperatures and episodes of scattered showers for now.  The FCOJ Movement and Pack report showed tight inventories again this week.

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers and storms.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 204.00 September.  Support is at 194.00, 192.00, and 190.00 September, with resistance at 202.00, 205.00, and 208.00 September.

DJ ICE FCOJ Speculation And Hedging Report - Jul 25
    For Jul 22 long and short positions in contracts.
SPECULATION     LONG   ACCTS     PCT   SHORT   ACCTS     PCT
  Total       23,002     577    64.3   7,277     172    20.3
HEDGING
  Total       12,794      89    35.7  28,519      78    79.7 
GRAND TOTAL:  35,796     666   100.0  35,796     250   100.0
DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack - Jul 25
   In gallons. Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC). 
                               2010-2011
                         Jul 16        Jul 09      Year Ago
  MOVEMENT
Retail                  142,866       142,150       192,285
Institutional           357,706       333,636       423,123
Bulk                  4,508,457     1,506,407     2,542,355
Total                 5,009,029     1,982,193     3,157,763
Cumulative          128,260,516   123,251,486   102,063,897
  IMPORTS
Foreign                  11,243     1,110,604       502,103
Cumulative           14,275,233    14,263,990    20,197,429
  RECEIPTS
Domestic                  7,507        68,474        45,160
  PACK
Retail                  144,223        62,577       163,105
Institutional           307,942       310,345       349,318
Bulk                    445,496       373,153       702,753
Less Reprocessed        897,661       746,075     1,215,175
Net                           0             0             0
Cumulative           82,091,651    82,091,651    82,252,237
Inventory            67,463,718    72,285,489   120,390,048

COFFEE 

General Comments:  Futures were higher in all markets again yesterday, with London leading the way on what appeared to be some speculative short covering.  No one otherwise seems real interested in the coffee market right now.  Brazil is still shipping coffee, but there is not much coming from Central America.  Certified stocks keep dropping, but inventories overall in the US and Europe appear ample.  Wire reports indicated that certified stocks are now at their lowest levels in 11 years.  Europe and the US are now in vacation times and seeing less demand.  Weather remains good in Brazil, with moderate temperatures and mostly dry weather.  Roasters are said to be well covered for now, but will soon start looking for Fall shipments.  Fundamentals continue to suggest strong prices overall for the longer term, but short term trends are down.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.540 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 202.06 ct/lb.  Brazil should see dry weather.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Latin American Washed Coffee exports were 2.46 million bags in June, up 5.6% from last year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 235.00 September.  Support is at 238.00, 233.00, and 230.00 September, and resistance is at 247.00, 253.00, and 256.00 September.  Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 2070, 2020, and 1985 September, and resistance is at 2190, 2230, and 2260 September.  Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 304.00 and 270.00 September.  Support is at 309.00, 307.00, and 294.00 September, and resistance is at 320.00, 326.00, and 327.00 September.

SUGAR                                                            

General Comments:  Futures closed lower in New York and in London yesterday after making new highs for the move.  It could be that lower production estimates from Brail are finally part of the price.  Both markets are seeing the fundamental emphasis change a little bit.  Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but this news has been known for quite a while now.  However, production in other parts of the world seems strong.  Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time.  In fact, India is being asked by its mills to allow more exports, and prices in Thailand have been moving lower. 

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil.  Temperatures should be near to above normal. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3160 October.  Support is at 3000, 2940, and 2910 October, and resistance is at 3160, 3190, and 3220 October.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 822.00 and 883.00 October.  Support is at 791.00, 776.00, and 768.00 October, and resistance is at 815.00, 821.00, and 825.00 October.

 

COCOA                                                                 

General Comments:  Futures were sharply lower in New York and in London on follow through speculative buying and reports of some new origin selling.  Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa created some selling pressure, but the region is now between harvests so offers are less.  Speculators were the best buyers, and origin remains quiet.  Trends are mixed on the charts for the short term.  For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally.  Fundamentals have not really changed.  Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average above normal.  ICE stocks are higher today and are now about 3.995 million bags.    

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2950 September.  Support is at 2950, 2920, and 2880 September, with resistance at 3010, 3030, and 3120 September.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 1800and 760 September.  Support is at 1860, 1830, and 1825 September, with resistance at 1920, 1960, and 2010 September.