COTTON

General Comments:  Futures closed sharply higher as traders questioned the surprisingly high production data from USDA that was released Thursday morning.  Traders anticipated product ion near 15.29 million bales, but USDA estimated production at 16.554 million bales.  Mills and funds were the best buyers.  Chart trends show a neutral bias.  Demand remains soft.  Countries like India are still offering Cotton at prices below those seen in the US, and the government is now allowing unrestricted exports for the next couple of months.  Bad weather in the US is still around, with little rain in the forecast for major Texas growing areas for the next week.  It is very hot in the Cotton areas of Texas.  No relief from the drought appears likely and crop losses in the state should be significant this year.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Texas will be mostly dry.  Temperatures will average above normal.  The USDA average spot price is now 99.37 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.014 million bales, from 0.014 million yesterday.  

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 95.00, 94.00, and 90.00 October, with resistance of 101.00, 104.00, and 105.00 October.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 9, 2011             
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
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COTTON NO. 2 - ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 50,000 POUNDS)                                                 
CFTC Code #033661                                                    Open Interest is   248,622                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:   41,978   113,683    47,614    21,495    16,022    38,327     9,152    14,843    16,796     2,482    58,483                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     August 2, 2011                                                                             
:    3,283    -2,424    -1,343     1,349       336      -849       737     1,503      -567      -277     3,131                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     16.9      45.7      19.2       8.6       6.4      15.4       3.7       6.0       6.8       1.0      23.5                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   255                     
:       33        44        17        17        22        66        25        33        59        24        53 
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FCOJ

General Comments:  Futures closed higher Friday as several potential tropical storms surfaced in the Atlantic.  However, none of the potential storms are likely to impact Florida if they develop at all  Charts show that trends are down for now, but futures appear very oversold.  Florida for now remains mostly warm and is getting scattered showers.  Brazil is also seeing moderate temperatures and episodes of scattered showers for now.  Charts show that the recent moves lower has been extreme and that a rebound is possible at any time and could have started Friday. 

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers and storms.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives.  Support is at 164.00, 159.00, and 157.00 September, with resistance at 169.00, 172.00, and 173.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 9, 2011             
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE - ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               
CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    39,906                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:    8,779    28,770     4,241       952       229    14,355       554       435     1,014       323     6,890                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     August 2, 2011                                                                             
:    1,591    -7,026        61      -979       165    -7,298       554      -207      -441       -41      -284                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     22.0      72.1      10.6       2.4       0.6      36.0       1.4       1.1       2.5       0.8      17.3                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    98                     
:       19        22         8         4         5        31         4         .         8        18        19 
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COFFEE 

General Comments:  Futures were little changed Friday as traders wrestled with all of the turmoil seen in world financial markets and seemed to take an extra day off.  Weather in Brazil is good, but other parts of Latin America could use improved weather.  It was too dry in Central America at flowering time and we have heard reports of too much rain again now in Colombia  Warmer temperatures are expected for much of the week in Brazil.  Brazil is still shipping coffee, albeit less than in the last few months, but there is not much coming from Central America except for some final shipments.  Certified stocks keep dropping, but inventories overall in the US and Europe are good.  Roasters are starting to look for Fall shipments.  Charts show that trends turned mixed again, and prices remain very close to objectives for the move.  

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.494 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 203.01 ct/lb.  Brazil should see mostly dry weather, but a few showers are possible in the south.  Temperatures will average near to above normal this week, but cooler this weekend. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 240.00, 237.00, and 232.00 September, and resistance is at 246.00, 248.00, and 253.00 September.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 2335 and 2550 September.  Support is at 2200, 2175, and 2150 September, and resistance is at 2300, 2350, and 2370 September.  Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with objectives of 304.00 and 270.00 September.  Support is at 307.00, 294.00, and 293.00 September, and resistance is at 317.00, 323.00, and 326.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 9, 2011             
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
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COFFEE C - ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 37,500 POUNDS)                                                     
CFTC Code #083731                                                    Open Interest is   176,344                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:   55,204    69,527    29,183    10,391     9,615    18,191    20,479     8,480     1,769     3,187    45,595                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     August 2, 2011                                                                             
:    2,254      -809    -1,308     1,020        50      -204       183    -1,063       506       148     1,060                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     31.3      39.4      16.5       5.9       5.5      10.3      11.6       4.8       1.0       1.8      25.9                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   335                     
:       88        93        19        15        20        46        46        45        47        51        76 
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SUGAR                                                            

General Comments:  Futures closed mostly higher in New York and lower in London Friday in consolidation trading.  News of less potential production from Brazil was offset by news of more exports from India.  Fundamentals still seem to be more negative than just a few months ago.  Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but production in other parts of the world seems strong.  Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time.  Demand is said to be somewhat better after the recent drop in prices.  The ship lineup in Brazil ports has diminished, which is considered an indication of weakening demand.  Thai export sources are telling wire services that export premiums have already fallen quite a bit in the last few weeks and should fall more as supplies increase in Asia. 

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.  Russia has produced 2,289 tons of Sugar from imported raws, up 21.2% from last year.  It has produced 25,400 tons from beets so far.    

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2730, 2700, and 2680 October, and resistance is at 2820, 2835, and 2870 October.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 738.00, 731.00, and 728.00 October, and resistance is at 748.00, 768.00, and 770.00 October.

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 9, 2011             
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
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SUGAR NO. 11 - ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 112,000 POUNDS)                                                
CFTC Code #080732                                                    Open Interest is   829,885                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:  140,753   394,211   144,386    78,333    64,237   158,029    16,822    53,564    28,355     4,800   154,031                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     August 2, 2011                                                                             
:      759   -22,582    -1,211    -4,502      -171   -22,734     1,071    -2,711    -3,953      -590    -1,778                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     17.0      47.5      17.4       9.4       7.7      19.0       2.0       6.5       3.4       0.6      18.6                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   243                     
:       54        62        18        12        26        69        11        36        32        34        58 
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COCOA                                                                 

General Comments:  Futures were higher in New York and a little higher in London in consolidation trading.  Cocoa is trying to find a bottom as futures have already fallen quite a bit since the end of the war and the elections.  Spreads between September and December were noted as positions get rolled forward before September deliveries start later this week.  Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa keep the selling pressure around, but the region is now between harvests so offers are less.  Trends are still down overall on the charts.  For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally.  Fundamentals have not really changed.  Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market.  Ideas are that current weather patterns in Africa are not good and that production in western Africa can drop next year. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average above normal.  ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 4.079 million bags.    

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2770 and 2640 September.  Support is at 2810, 2800, and 2730 September, with resistance at 2920, 2955, and 2980 September.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1825, 1790, and 1760 September, with resistance at 1860, 1900, and 1920 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 9, 2011             
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
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COCOA - ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 10 METRIC TONS)                                                       
CFTC Code #073732                                                    Open Interest is   197,956                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:   86,878   101,083    21,040    10,544     4,508    32,431    29,422    21,061     1,897     2,006    20,689                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     August 2, 2011                                                                             
:    4,697    -5,313    -1,578       296    -2,356      -303     2,988    -3,120    -3,389       292      -490                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     43.9      51.1      10.6       5.3       2.3      16.4      14.9      10.6       1.0       1.0      10.5                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   175                     
:       38        41        19         7        12        29        39        25        20        12        25 
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