No change in Natural Gas' outlook. Intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 3.965 minor resisetance hodls. Current decline is still expected to extend further to 61.8% projection of 6.24 to 4.28 from 4.88 at 3.67 next. On the upside, above 3.962 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring mild recovery. But short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 4.38 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, staying well below 55 days EMA at 4.845, Natural Gas' down trend from 13.69 is still in progress. Sustained trading below 4.0 should pave the way to next key psychological support at 3.0. Also, such decline is treated as part of the sideway pattern from 15.56 and could be heading to 100% projection of 15.65 to 4.3 from 13.69 at 2.34.
On the upside, break of 4.38 resistance will be the first signal that such down trend is bottoming, possibly with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Stronger rebound should then be seen to 6.24 resistance for confirming completion of medium term down trend.
Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart