Natural gas' break of 3.983 minor resistance indicates that a temporary low is again in place at 3.759 and outlook is turned neutral for the moment. But after all, as discussed before, short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 4.38 resistance holds and another fall is still in favor to 61.8% projection of 6.24 to 4.28 from 4.88 at 3.67 next. However, note that a break of 4.38 resistance will be the first signal that Natural gas has bottomed out in short term and will bring stronger rally to 4.88 resistance next.
In the bigger picture, staying well below 55 days EMA at 4.688, Natural Gas' down trend from 13.69 is still in progress. Sustained trading below 4.0 should pave the way to next key psychological support at 3.0. Also, such decline is treated as part of the sideway pattern from 15.56 and could be heading to 100% projection of 15.65 to 4.3 from 13.69 at 2.34.
On the upside, break of 4.38 resistance will be the first signal that such down trend is bottoming, possibly with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Stronger rebound should then be seen to 6.24 resistance for confirming completion of medium term down trend.
Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract Daily Chart