Natural Gas's decline is still in progress and reaches as low as 3.672 so far, touching mentioned 61.8% projection of 6.24 to 4.28 from 4.88 at 3.67. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 3.85 minor resistance holds. Further decline could still be seen towards 100% projection at 2.92. On the upside, above 3.85 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring recovery, but after all, short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 4.38 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, staying well below 55 days EMA at 4.56, Natural Gas' down trend from 13.69 is still in progress. Sustained trading below 4.0 should now pave the way to next key psychological support at 3.0. Also, such decline is treated as part of the sideway pattern from 15.56 and could be heading to 100% projection of 15.65 to 4.3 from 13.69 at 2.34.
On the upside, break of 4.38 resistance will be the first signal that such down trend is bottoming, possibly with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Stronger rebound should then be seen to 6.24 resistance for confirming completion of medium term down trend.
Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract Daily Chart