Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Natural gas's break of 3.775 support indicates that recent decline has resumed and intraday bias is back on the downside for 61.8% projection of 4.496 to 3.775 from 4.10 at 3.654 first. . Also, note that we're favoring the case that rebound from 3.255 is completed at 4.879 already and a retest of 3.255 should be seen eventually. On the upside, break of 4.10 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that medium term decline from 6.108 is still in progress. Such decline would now extend lower to correct the rebound from 2009 low of 2.409. Though, we'd expect strong support above 2.409 low and bring another rise. Note that long term down trend should have bottomed out at 2.409 and we'd expect another rise to push natural gas through 6.108 resistance towards 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 in medium term.
Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract Daily Chart