Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

As discussed before, the sharp fall from 5.007 mixed up the near term outlook and we'll stay neutral first. On the upside, above 5.007 resistance again will reaffirm the case that pull back from 5.196 is finished with three waves down to 4.288. In such case, further rise should be seen to retest 5.196 first. On the downside, however, break of 4.287 support will in turn indicate that fall from 5.196 has resumed for a test on 3.81 support.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that fall from 6.108 is possibly completed at 3.81 after being supported by 61.8% retracement of 2.409 to 6.108 at 3.822. In other words, rebound from 2.409 might not be finished yet. Break of 5.672 projection level will argue that rise from 3.81 is developing into an impulsive move and is possibly resuming whole rise from 2.409 for another high above 6.108. However, break of 4.288 will revive the case that rebound from 2.409 is finished at 6.108 already. Further break of 3.81 will target 2.409 low.