Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Intraday bias in Natural gas remains cautiously on the downside with 4.646 minor resistance intact and further fall should be seen to 4.288 support. Break will confirm that whole fall from 5.196 has resumed and should target a test on 3.81 support next. On the upside, above 4.646 will turn intraday bias neutral again and turn focus back to 5.007 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the main question remains on whether Natural gas's fall from 6.108 is finished at 3.71 already as it just drew strong support from 61.8% retracement of 2.409 to 6.108 at 3.822. We'll stay neutral first. On the downside, break of 3.81 will revive the case that whole medium term rebound from 2.409 is finished at 6.108 already and will bring even deeper fall to retest this low. On the upside. Though, note that break of 5.196 will argue that rise from 2.409 is not finished yet and will extend for making another high above 6.108 before completion.

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