Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas drops further as expected and reaches as low as 4.035 so far today. Further decline is still expected with 4.375 resistance intact. Whole fall from 5.196 should now target a test on 3.81 key support level. On the upside, above 4.375 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But after all, another fall will remain in favor as long as 5.007 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, the main question remains on whether Natural gas's fall from 6.108 is finished at 3.71 already as it just drew strong support from 61.8% retracement of 2.409 to 6.108 at 3.822. We'll stay neutral first. On the downside, break of 3.81 will revive the case that whole medium term rebound from 2.409 is finished at 6.108 already and will bring even deeper fall to retest this low. On the upside. Though, note that break of 5.007 will argue that rise from 2.409 is not finished yet and will extend for making another high above 6.108 before completion.

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