Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Natural gas' fall from 6.108 continued last week dropped to as low as 4.050 last week. The break of 4.157 support argues that whole medium term rebound from 2.409 is possibly finished. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 2.409 to 6.108 at 3.822 first. Decisive break there will target a retest of 2.409 low. On the upside, above 4.292 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 5.06 support turned resistance is now needed to indicate that fall from 6.108 has completed. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bearish and another fall would still be expected in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that medium term rebound from 2.409 has completed earlier than we thought at 6.108. Also, the three wave corrective structure of the rebound argues that it's merely a correction, or part of the consolidation in the larger down trend. Current fall from 6.108 might extend further for a retest on 2.409 low next. A break above 5.06 resistance will revive that case that rise from 2.409 is not finished and turn outlook neutral first.
Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
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