Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 28 higher at 143'28 and the 10 Yr. Note 16 higher at 131'22. I still feel the Bonds are rangebound between 140'00 and 145'00. Of note: Over the weekend the G-20 (industrialized and developing nations) met and somewhat shied away from providing international aid to Europe, but signaled that they could help build a two trillion dollar global rescue package by mid year. Also, the long 5 Yr. Note/ short 10 Yr. Note spread is approaching resistance in the 8'13 area (currently 8'06) premium the 10 Yr. Note.
Grains: Overnight May Corn traded 5'2 cents lower at 638'6, May Beans fractionally lower at 1286'2 and May wheat 4'2 lower at 637'0. We are coming in this morning with no positions in the Grains this morning contemplating selling the 600'0/ 700'0 strangle in either May or July Corn. The Grains are lower this morning due mostly to weakness in Global markets. Support for May Corn is currently 625'0.
Cattle: Friday's Cattle on Feed Report showed the following: On Feed102% of a year ago vs. average analysts estimates of 102.5%. Placed in January 98% vs. estimates of 98.8%. Marketed in January 102% vs. an average estimate of 100.3%. The Report shows as expected, herd size is continuing to shrink in the near term, but I feel that it also indicates that breeding is expanding. The marketing number also shows me that producers are taking advantage of the near term bubble in prices given the 2.0% increase in marketings. The early call is steady to moderately higher. I still prefer the short side on rallies based on my perception that there will be a fall off in consumer demand, especially if energy prices continue climbing causing a decrease in discretionary spending.
Silver: May Silver is currently 8 cents lower at 35.33 and Apr. Gold 5.00 lower at 1771.00. I feel the only way to trade these markets given the current volatility is with out of the money call spreads. Trends remain up.
S&P's: Mar. S&P's are currently 9.50 lower at 1354.00. Support is 1348.00 and resistance the 1364.50 area. I prefer the short side on rallies above 1359.00 with buy stops above the recent high of 1369.50.
Currencies: As of this writing the Mar. Euro is 73 lower at 1.3387, the Swiss 63 lower at 1.1114, the Yen 93 higher at 1.2445 and the Pound 40 lower at 1.5844. A disappointing G-20 meeting and nervousness over French elections and a slowing of the Chinese economy has pressured the Euro this morning. On Friday, I tried the short side of the Euro only to be regrettably stopped out with a 40 point loss. I now feel a bit more confidence with the short side of the market and recommend (once again) the short side of the market for a longer term play with protective buy stops above 1.3540. I am still interested in the short side of the Yenon rallies but with put options as opposed to futures.
Regards, Marc 888.908.4310 | 312.264.4310 firstname.lastname@example.org