Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1'22 higher at 128'18. This mornings report on 2nd Quarter GDP came in at 2.4% versus an expectation of 2.5%. In the first quarter the economy grew by 3.7% revised from 2.7%, but growth estimates going back as far as 2007 have been revised to lower numbers. This overal revision of data over the past 3 years showed that the exit from the economic slump started in 2007 was weaker than anticipated.
As an economist friend of mine likes to say Economists have predicted 11 out of the last 7 recessions. This saying, I assume, also goes for recoveries. My basic gut feeling is to once again look to the short side of the market now that the yield on the 30 Yr. is once again under 4.00% and the yield on the 10 Yr. below 3.00% but I am going to risk erring on the side of caution and stay on the sidelines. Near term resistance is now the 129'12 level and longer term resistance could be as high as the 132'00 level.
Grains: Yesterday Nov. beans were 10 cents higher, Dec. Corn 3 higher and Dec. Wheat 12 higher. Over night Beans were 7 higher, Corn 2 higher and Wheat 9 higher. If you remain long beans raise your protective sell stop to 12 cents above your entry level or take profits. If you are long Dec. Corn raise your protective sell stop to 12 cents above your entry level or take profits. These market should find some psychological resistance at 1000'0 in Nov. Beans and 400'0 in Dec. Corn. We remain long out of the money call spreads in Dec. Corn.
Cattle: Yesterday Live and Feeder Cattle closed 50-80 lower depending on the contract month. If you remain short Oct. Cattle continue to use a protective buy stop at 95.20. If the market trades below the 93.00 level (currently 93.30) lower your buy stop to the 94.80 level.
Silver: Sept. Silver is currently 22 cents higher at 17.84. We remain long the Dec. 20/22 call spread.
S&P's: Sept. S&P's are currently 4.00 lower at 1093.00. The market has recovered about two thirds of its early morning loss after the release of the GDP data. We remain short the Sept. 1140 call and will look to cover this position at 8.00 if the market allows over the next few sessions as time decay should start to come into play.
Currencies: As of this writing the Sept. Euro is 55 lower at 1.3020, the Swiss 7 higher at .9603, the Yen 41 higher at 1.1548 and the Pound 9 higher at 1.5624. As I mentioned yesterday, bottom line, my short bias to the Euro and the Swiss is not working. My recommended buy stop for short positions in the Swiss (recommendation from 7/28 was a buy stop at .9630) was pentrated and I recommend taking the loss on this position. As for positions of either long puts or short calls in the Euro I am willing to give them a bit more time to see if the market can work a bit lower now that the 1.3100 level has been tested. I will however be looking for an opportunity to exit this trade on a sharp (200 point) break.