Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 19 higher at 149'16 and the 10 Yr. Note 9 higher at 134'08. This morning's Unemployment Report showed an increase in non-farm payrolls of 80,000 vs. expectations of 100,000. This was disappointing in light of yesterday's ADP private sector jobs estimate which showed an increase of 176k vs. expectations of 108k, and the Jobless Claims Report which showed a decline of 14k vs. an expectation of a decline of 4k. Also the ECB lowered it's key lending rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% Thurs. morning. I suspect the talk will be ramped up for another round of easing. At the moment I have a nuetral bias on the Bonds at current levels and expect a near term trading range of 147'20 to 150'10. As a trader I prefer the short side of the market on rallies to resistance. Long term resistance is in the 152'00 to 153'00 area.
Grains: Dec. Corn is currently 14'0 lower at 694'4, Nov. Beans 11'4 lower at 1515'0 and Dec. Wheat 22'4 lower at 824'4. The prospect of cooler temperatures and the possibility of light percipitation in some growing areas has induced some profit taking this morning, given this weeks sharply higher prices across the Board. As mentioned earlier in the week, producers should consider taking protection with the use of out of the money puts as opposed to futures at this time. As for speculation, I'll be a buyer below the 650'0 level and a seller above 720'0 in Dec. Corn. Monday afternoon's Crop Progress Report will give a better on where things stand for the short term.
Cattle: Aug. LC is currently is currently 40 higher at 119.55 and Aug. FC 100 higher at 146.95. My bias remains a bit negative to Live Cattle above the 120.00 leel. Any easing in feed grain prices from current levels should have a positive effect on Feeder Cattle prices for the near term.
Silver: Sept. Silver is currently 50 cents lower at 27.17 and Aug. Gold 23 Dollars lower at 1586.00. We remain lightly long Silver. I will once again be looking to the long side of Gold below the 1560.00 area.
S&P's: Sept. S&P's are currently 12.00 lower at 1349.50. Negative employment data this morning and a once again stronger Dollar have pushed prices to present levels from the 1360.00 area. Support is currently the 1343.00 area with resistance above the 1360.00 level. My bias remains short term negative, but I will be willing to switch to the long side of the market below the 1343.00 area.
Currencies: As of this writing the Sept. Euro is currently 75 lower at 1.2326, the Swiss64 lower at 1.0268, the Yen 51 higher at 1.2578 and the Pound 21 lower at 1.5501. What a difference a few todays make, in my last letter, July 3rd the Euro was trading at 1.2590. Since then the ECB has lowered rates by 0.25% to 0.75%. The market has taken this as too little too late. Being somewhat of a contrarian, I am technically looking at long term support for the Euro in the 1.2100-1.2200, levels from which I will be willing to try the long side of the market.
888.908.4310 | 312.264.4310