Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 18 lower at 121'05. Yesterday the market penetrated resistance on the upside trading as high as 121'26. If you went short at yesterday's resistance of 121'14, either take the short term profit or use a protective buy stop just above yesterday's high. If the market trades below 120'28 and you remain short, either take profits or lower your buy stop to your break even level. At approximately 1:15 Chicago time the FOMC will announce their decision on interest rates. I expect no change. The only thing that will move the markets will be in the language of the minutes which could alter Fed policy over the next few months if they believe inflation is an issue. We remain long out of the money puts and/or put spreads in the June and Sept. 2012 Eurodollars.

Grains: Yesterday Mar. Beans closed 30 cents lower, Corn 11 lower and Wheat 3 higher. Over night Beans were 7 higher, Corn 7 higher and Wheat 10 higher. Yesterday the market went through support of 1378'0 (the low was 1364'2) and is current trading above this level (currently 13810). If you went long use a protective sell stop at 1358'0. Support in Corn was also tested in the 638'0 area (the low was 639'2). If you are currently long use a protective sell stop at 635'0. Yesterday we took profits on the short Mar. Bean 13000 straddle (short calls and puts) below the 106'0 level.

Cattle: Yesterday Live Cattle closed 50 lower and Feeder Cattle about 40 lower. I still prefer the short side of the market on sharp rallies. However, I must note that the Mar. Feeders are approaching support at 124.00 and Apr. Cattle could find support at 110.00.

Silver: Mar. Silver is currently 2 cents higher at 27.82. We remain long Mar. futures from below the 27.50 level and recommend using a protective sell stop $1.00 below your entry level. I recommend liquidating any remaining out of the money call spreads. We remain long the Apr. Gold $1100 puts.

S&P's: Mar. S&P's are currently 2.00 higher at 1290.00. Yesterday's recovery off of a low in the 1278.00 area and the market's positive reaction to the State of the Union Address is turning me neutral to a little friendly to the market. Support is currently 1274.00 and resistance 1295.00.

Currencies: As of this writing the Mar. Euro is 10 lower at 1.3653, the Swiss 25 lower at 1.0590, the Yen 3 lower at 1.2171 and the Pound 72 higher at 1.5860. Our only position at this time is long out of the money puts on the Euro.


Marc Nemenoff
Senior Market Analyst, Price Futures Group
Publisher, Nemenoff Letter
Contact: 888.908.4310 |