Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 15 lower at 118'20. This mornings Employment Report showed an increase in non-farm payrolls of 36,000 versus a pre-report estimate of 140,000. The number that really moved the market was the 9.0% unemployment rate versus a pre-report estimate of 9.4%. Support of 118'22 has been broken as this morning's low was 118'04 before retracing to the 118'20 level. If you are short this market I recommend covering positions and standing aside. We remain long out of the money puts and/or put spreads in the June and Sept. 2012 Eurodollars. Since my last letter on Feb. 1st, June 2012 Eurodollars have fallen about 25 points, increasing the value of our positions. If you are net long multiple contracts of the June or Sept. puts consider taken partial profits.
Grains: Yesterday Beans closed 8 cents lower, Corn 6 lower and Wheat 4 lower. Over night Beans were fractionally lower, Corn 1 higher and Wheat 3 lower. We remain on the sidelines as far as futures positions are concerned. We continue to hold the combination of the short the May Beans 1260'0 put and short the May beans 1600'0 call.
Cattle: Yesterday Apr. Cattle closed about 30 lower and Mar. Feeder Cattle 30 lower. If you remain short either Live or Feeder Cattle either take profits or lower your protective buy stop to 75 points below your break even level. (On Jan. 31st the recommendation was to sell Apr. Cattle above 114.25 and/or Mar. Feeder Cattle above 127.50)
Silver: Mar. Silver is currently 11 cents higher at 28.85. I am currently on the sidelines having been stopped out of recent longs when the market traded below the 26.50 level last week. We remain long the Apr. Gold $1100 put which is currently at a loss. Higher closes in Gold and Silver could turn the trends back up.
S&P's: Mar. S&P's are currently 2.00 higher at 1305.25 continuing its rally to more than a two year high. This morning unemployment rate of 9.0% has kept the market in uptrend mode. My gut reaction: buy the rumor sell the fact (unemployment rate is falling). That being said I have no technical reason to go short. I am on the sidelines.
Currencies: As of this writing the Mar. Euro is 40 lower at 1.3589, the Swiss 100 lower at 1.0485, the Yen 12 lower at 1.2239 and the Pound 60 lower at 1.6083. If you remain short the Euro either take profits or lower your buy stop to the 1.3685 level. The British Pound may have broken out to the downside. You might consider selling rallies with a protective buy stop in the 1.6300 area.
Senior Market Analyst, Price Futures Group
Publisher, Nemenoff Letter
Contact: 888.908.4310 | firstname.lastname@example.org