The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher

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Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 12 higher at 117'06. Yesterday the market gave the opportunity to go long at support of 116'23. If you went long, either take the short term profit or use a protective sell stop at 116'29. Near term resistance is now the 117'24 level. Comments related to the minutes of the recent FOMC meeting indicate that the Fed feels that a recovery is becoming more entrenched and that a policy of tightening is a possibility down the road. I'm not sure that this will be the case for at least a few months as unemployment is still a problem and that 9.5-9.7% is the projected rate of unemployment through the 4th quarter at this time.

 

Grains: Yesterday Beans were 14 cents lower, Corn 7 lower and Wheat 10 lower. Over night Beans were fractionally higher, Corn 1 lower and Wheat about 3 lower. A return to a stronger Dollar has once again put pressure on the Grains. I will continue to favor the short side of market on rallies near resistance of 971'0 in Mar. Beans and 372'0 in Mar. Corn. The May Beans 880'0/1000'0 strangle is currently trading at 35'0.

Cattle: Yesterday April Cattle closed slightly lower at 92.15 and is trading about unchanged this morning. I still feel that the Apr. Cattle is a sale in the 92.00-93.00 area with a risk of 150-200 points.

Silver: Mar. Silver is currently 21 cents lower at 15.89. If you remain short either take the short term profit or use a protective buy stop at 16.12. We remain long out of the money call spreads on the July contract.

S&P's: Mar. S&P's are currently 5.25 lower at 1094.25. We remain short from the 1088.00 area with a protective buy stop at 1108.00. If the market trades below the 1084.00 level, lower your buy stop to the 1098.00 level. I continue recommending buying puts on the June contract as portfolio insurance.

Currencies: As of this writing the Mar. Euro is 45 lower at 1.3571, the Swiss 30 lower at .9255, the Yen 50 higher at 1.1024 and the Pound 116 lower at 1.5569. Yesterday we were stopped out of a recent long position in the Euro when the market traded below the 1.3685 level. Once again I feel this market is in near term support and I am willing to try the long side of the Euro for a short term trade at current level with a protective sell stop at the 1.3530. I stress the point of a short term trade as this is counter to the prevailing trend. The Mar. Dollar Index is currently 15 higher at 80.63.

Regards,

Marc

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