Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 15 lower at 145'17 and the 10 Yr. Notes 6 lower at 132'10.5. Yields on the 30 Yr. are now about 2.90% and the 10 Yr. slightly above 1.80%. Speculation that the ECB is going to take measures to "cap yields" on the Notes of weaker countries (Greece, Spain, etc.) has pressured Bonds and the Dollar this morning removing more of the "safety factor" that Dollar denominated paper has provided over the last few months. That being said, I have to keep in mind Operation Twist which has the Fed buying long term instruments and selling short term instruments in an effort to put a cap on our rates. The market is near support in the 145'12 area with resistance at 147'08. I contniue to recommend the long side of this market on sharp breaks for short term trading.

Grains: Dec. Corn is currently 5 cents higher at 829'0, Nov. Beans 29 cents higher at 1713'0 and Dec. Wheat 5 cents higher at 908'0. Beans are on new high ground due to good export demand. Yesterday afternoon's crop progress report shower 23% of the Corn crop in good to excellent condition, unchanged from last year. 51% of the crop is poor to very poor, unchanged from a week ago. 17% of the crop is mature vs. a 5 year average of 4% indicating an early harvest as this reflects the early planting due to a warm spring. I feel from here on traders will be focusing more on yield than condition as this will tell the true story. Our only position at present is short the combination of the Dec. Corn 680'0 put and the Dec. Corn 900'0 call. Support is currently 808'0 and resistance 849'0.

Cattle: Oct. LC is currently about unchanged at 125.50 and Oct. FC 15 lower at 143.90. We have liquidated all long Oct. FC positions as this market was not able to hold above the 145.00 level. Something to watch and consider: Long Dec. Hogs/short Dec. Live Cattle. This spread is historically wide.

Silver: Sept. Silver is currently 54 cents higher at 29.14 and Dec. Gold 15.00 dollars higher at 1638.00. We remain lightly long Silver. Gold has finally broken out of it's recent 1585.00-1625.00 trading range. I'll be a buyer on breaks.S&P's: Sept. S&P's are currently 4.00 higher at 1418.75. About an hour ago, this market made a new (highly anticipated) high for the year at 1420.00 due to anticipation of action by the ECB to ease the pressure on countries such as Greece and Spain. Now that a new high is finally in, this market bares watching to see if it has the "legs" for further advances or if it is time to buy the rumor sell the fact. I remain on the sidelines with a slightly bearish bias. Support is currently 1408.00.

Currencies: As of this writing the sept. Euro is trading 110 higher at 1.2461, the Swiss 92 higher at 1.0376, the Yen 3 higher at 1.2600 and the Pound 59 higher at 1.5767. I remain on the sidelines closing watching the Euro to see if the 1.2475-1.2525 resistance area will keep advances in check.Regards, Marc888.908.4310 |