The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher

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Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 20 lower at 151’15 and the 10 Yr. Notes 8 lower at 133’25.5. Yesterday the Bonds traded as high as 152’15 slightly above resistance of 152’04 an area stated in my last “Report” (dated 11/12/2012) where I am willing to initiate a trade from the short side of the market. If you went short, either take the short term profit or use a protective buy stop just below your entry level. If the market should trade below the 151’00 level lower your protective buy stop to the 151’22 level. Support remains in the 150’04 area. I still have a long term negative bias, that being said, I am still looking for short term trades, cognitive at the moment of Fed policy and the coming “Fiscal Cliff”. If you are looking for a long term trade consider out of the money putsa for either Jan. or Mar. expiration.

Grains: Dec. Corn is currently 1’4 higher at 725’0, Jan. Beans 15’6 higher at 1423’6 and Dec. Wheat 2’6 higher at 853’6. On Monday we went long Dec. Corn in the 725’0 area. At the moment I recommend using a protective sell stop in the 708’0 area, just below yesterday’s low of 710’4. If the market trades above 733’0 raise your stop to the 716’0 area. We remain long Dec. 800’0 calls and the Mar. Corn 800’0/850’0 call spread. Of note: Jan. Beans may be trying to make a bottom despite trend line support in the 1380’0 area.

Cattle: Dec. LC are currently unchanged at 125.80 and Jan FC 40 lower at 145.75. These markets have not been able to gain any upside traction despite a sharp break in the Grains and a rally in competing Pork products. I am still on the sidelines awaiting “that break” looking for a buying opportunity. Support for Dec. LC is currently the 124.50 area and support for Jan. FC the 142.00 area.

Silver: Dec. Silver is currently 8 cents higher at at 32.57 and Dec. Gold 3.00 higher at 1728.00. We remain long Silver as a long term position. Of note: It is rumored that China will be in the market as a buyer in an effort to increase its’ Gold reserves. That being said, the action in Gold does not substantiate the rumor. Support for Dec. Gold is currently 1705.00 and resistance 1745.00.

S&P's: Dec. S&P’s are currently 5.00 higher 1375.75. I still feel the market is in a range of 1366.00 to 1388.00 for the near term. I prefer the short side of the market on rallies to the low 1380’s at this time. Longer term, support is the 1353.00 level and resistance 1407.00. Budget, Debt Ceiling and Tax cut discussions coming up in about 7 weeks.

Currencies: As of this writing the Dec. Euro is currently 42 higher at 1.2750, the Swiss 25 higher at 1.0586, the Yen 140 lower at 1.2457 and the Pound 2 lower at 1.5870. A better than expected result in auction of Greek treasuries yesterday has firmed up the Euro and broken the Yen this morning. To be honest, I do not see the Yen as a defacto reserve currency, although many others do. Technically the Yen looks negative and will have a downside break out if it closes below the 1.2400 level. At the moment resistance is the 1.2640 level. I am still looking at the Euro as a buy below the 1.2650 level and a sell in the 1.3150 area.

Regards, Marc
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mnemenoff@pricegroup.com
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