Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 4 lower at 148'25 and the 10 Yr. Note 1 lower at 133'13. Over the next few days we have Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, European Union Summit and the Supreme Court decision on Health Care (Obamacare). Bottom line: I prefer being on the sidelines and trading the market reaction.
Grains: Overnight July Corn is trading 17'0 higher at 663'0 and Dec. Corn 20'0 higher at 644'0. July Beans are currently 17'0 higher at 1488'0 and July Wheat1'0 higher at 730'0. No question about it, I have misjudged the reaction to the current drought in the midwest East of the Mississippi. My judgement is colored by experience over the last few years where we have seen hot dry weather drive the market higher in mid to late June only to see prices back off dramatically as harvest comes due. I am on the sidelines coming into this morning having recommended Monday taking profits on all long positions. Friday morning there is a Grain Stocks and a Planted Acreage Report. Tomorrow we are expecting to see record high temperatures in the Chicago area (100 degrees plus), my basic instinct is to sell Corn on Thurs. if the market is sharply higher. Starting Friday I will be quoting Dec. Corn and Wheat and Nov. Beans. Friday is first notice day for July contracts
Cattle: Aug. LC is currently unchanged at 115.47. Aug. FC 145 lower at 146.250 continuing to break due to higher feed grain costs. Aug. LC is nearing support in the 114.50 area, a level where I am willing to try the long side of the market.
Silver: Sept. Silver (Friday is first notice day for July contracts) is currently 30 cents lower at 26.70 and Aug. Gold 11.00 lower at 1564.00. We continue to hold a small long position in Silver. I am on the sidelines quietly observing whether Gold will hold the 1540-1550.00 support area.
S&P's: Sept. S&P's are currently unchanged at 1315.50. The market has held Monday's low in the 1303.00 area for the moment. If you are short the market I recommend covering positions and standing aside. My bias has turned somewhat friendly to the market and I will be a cautious buyer on breaks. If the 1303.00 level is penetrated the next major level of support will be the 1288.00 area. Given the events (Jobless Claims, E.U. Summit and Health Care decision) over the next few day, unless you have a strong conviction in these matters, consider the sidelines.
Currencies: As of this writing the Sept. Euro is currently 20 lower at 1.2486, the Swiss20 lower at 1.0408, the Yen30 lower at 1.2568 and the Pound 60 lower at 1.5574. I am currently on the sidelines.
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