The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Lower

on November 12 2012 9:36 AM

Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 1 lower at 151’19 and the 10 Yr. Notes 2.5 lower at 133’26.5. Expect a slow day in the Bonds as the cash market is closed in observance of Veteran’s Day holiday. For the moment support is the 150’04 level and resistance 152’04. I am currently on the sidelines with a somewhat negative bias.Grains: Dec. Corn is currently 2’6 lower at 737’0, Jan. Beans 25’2 lower at 1411’2 and Dec. Wheat 9’4 lower at 877’0. We were stopped out of all remaining long Dec. Wheat positions when the market traded through the 882’0 level. Trend remains down on the Beans. Corn is once again approaching support in the 725’0-735’0 area. Friday’s Crop Report showed the following: Corn Crop 10.725 billion bushels vs. average estimate of 10.629. Beans 2.971 vs. estimate of 2.891. Yield for Corn 122.3 bushels per acre vs. estimate of 122.1. Yield for Beans 39.3 bushels per acre vs. estimate of 38.2. Carry out for Corn 647 million bushels vs. estimate of 635, Beans 140 mb vs. 133mb and Wheat 704mb vs. 666mb. The report shows supply for Corn still tight but more than expected. The surprise in the Report in my opinion was the more than ample supply and size of the Bean crop. At the moment we remain long Dec. Corn 800’0 calls and Mar. Corn 800’0/850’0 call spreads.Cattle: On Friday Dec. LC closed 27 higher at 125.75 and Jan. FC 27 lower at 145.60. Near term trends remain down but approaching support in the 124.50 varea for Dec. LC an the 142.50 area for Jan. FC levels where I am currently looking to be a buyer.Silver: Dec. Silver is currently 10 cents lower at 32.51 and Dec. Gold 3.50 dollars higher at 1734.50. We remain long Dec. Silver as a long term position.S&P's: Dec. S&P’s are currently 3.50 higher at 1379.25. The market is still holding above the 1737.00 200 day moving average for a lead month contract. Current resistance is the 1788.00 area for the near term, longer term resistance is the 1407.00 area. Something to ponder: How contentious will upcoming Budget, Debt Ceiling and extention of the Bush Tax Break talks be? For the moment I continue to be a seller on sharp rallies for position trades. For the near term, if the market trades below the 1366.00 level I will be looking for a break to the 1358.25 area.Currencies: As of this writing the Dec. Euro is currently 10 higher at 1.2745, the Swiss 10 higher at 1.0556, the Yen 5 higher at 1.2598 and the Pound 25 lower at 1.5875. Domestic Banks are closed today and we expect quiet currency markets. I am on the sidelines.Regards, Marc888.908.4310 | 312.264.4310mnemenoff@pricegroup.comwww.pricegroup.com

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