The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Lower

 
on November 20 2012 10:59 AM

Financials: Dec. Bonds are curently 6 lower at 151’08 and the 10 Yr. Note 3.5 lower at 133’25.5. This mornings Housing Starts report showed an increase of 3.6% t0 894,000 vs. an average analysts expectation of -4.5% putting the rate of starts to its highest level since July of 2008. Buliding permits have tempered the bullishness of the “starts” number being down 2.7%. We continue to be sellers for short term trades in the 152’04 area with a protective buy stop at 152’22. The recent high has been 152’21, better lucky than smart. If you are holding a short position from the 152’04 level, either take profits or lower your buy stop to 151’21. Support remains at 150’04.Grains: Dec. Corn is currently 1’0 higher at 739’6, Jan. Beans 3’6 lower at 1391’0 and Dec. Wheat 1’2 higher at 843’0. If you went long Jan. Beans in the 1380’0 area, either take the small profit or use a protective sell stop at 1368’0. If the market trades above the 1404’0 level raise your sell stop to the 1382’0 area. We remain long Dec. Corn and will raise our sell stop from the 708’0 level to 728’0. We also remain long the Dec. Corn 800’0 call which expires this week and will probably go off the board worthless baring some extremely bullish news in the next 24 hours. We remain long the Mar. Corn 800’0/850’0 call spread.Cattle: Dec. LC are currently are currently 17 higher at 126.77 and Jan. FC 12 lower at 145.87. Last Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report was neutral as all figures were in line with expectations: On feed was 95% of a year ago, Placements 87% and Marketed 103%. Dec. Cattle remain in a range of 124.50-127.50. Feeder Cattle remain firm in the 145.00 area and I will be a buyer on weakness to the 142.00 level if the market allows.Silver: Dec. Silver is currently 13 cents lower at 33.03 and Dec. Gold 4.00 dollars lower at 1730.00. We remain long Silver. Gold at the moment has held support in the 1705.00 area and is now approaching resistance in the 1743.00 area. If you are long I recommend using a protective sell stop at 1719.00.

S&P's: Dec. S&P’s are currently unchanged at 1382.50. On Friday the market held support in the 1343.00 level (see Report dated Nov. 16th) and has since rallied through near term resistance of 1371.00 and is now trading and longer term resistance of 1383.00. It appears that the corner stone of a deal is in the works to avoid the “Fiscal Cliff” which for the moment has put a floor under the market at Friday’s support of 1343.00. I am skeptical. I am once again changing my bias to slightly negative and am a cautious seller at current levels. If the market should support above the 1371.00 level I will look for the next resistance level to be the 1407.00 level.Currencies: As of this writing the Dec. Euro is trading 11 lower at 1.2800, the Swiss 16 lower at 1.0624, the Yen 46 lower at 1.2248 and the Pound 8 higher at 1.5909. If you remain short the Yen lower your buy stop to the 1.2370 area. If the market trades below the 1.2185 level either take profits or lower your stop to the 1.2340 level. My objective remains below the 1.2000 level.Regards,Marc888.908.4310 | 312.264.4310mnemenoff@pricegroup.comwww.pricegroup.com

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