The Nemenoff Report Bonds - Lower, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher

By IBTimes Staff Reporter | April 30 2010 10:19 AM

Financials: Jun. Bonds are currently 2 lower at 118'05. Yesterday the market traded through my recommended buy stop of 118'03 for any remaining short futures positions. This morning's GDP report showed an increase of 3.2% versus an average pre-report estimate of 3.3%. The report had little effect on the market. Near term support is currently 117'06 and resistance remains in the 118'12 area. I will be looking to do the NOB spread (10 yr. Notes/30 Yr. Bonds) at 1'02 if the market allows. I will buy the 10 Yr. Notes/ sell the Bonds at 1'02 premium the Bonds (currently at 25 points). For short term traders I will once again be looking to sell the Bonds between 118'12 and 118'20 with a protective buy stop at 119'02. We remain long the Jun. Bond 114'00 puts which I intend to carry through next Friday's Unemployment Report.

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Grains: Yesterday Beans were 2 cents higher, Corn 3 higher and Wheat 8 higher. Over night Beans were 1 higher, Corn 1 higher and Wheat 2 higher. Yesterday mornings export report was better than expected, especially for corn, adding underlying support to the market. We remain long out of the money call spreads in Nov. Beans. For your consideration: Sell the Sept. Corn 420'0/340'0 strangle at 24'0 (this involves selling both the Sept. Corn 420'0 call and the 340'0 put) if the market allows. Theoretically this should prove profitable if the market stays between 320'0 and 440'0 over the next few months.

Cattle: Yesterday both Feeder and Live Cattle closed moderately higher. Continue to treat Jun. Cattle as a trading market between 92.70 and 95.70. The long term trend remains up on this market but I feel that supplies will be ample in the next moth or two which could attract some hedge pressure above 95.00 on the Jun. contract. Hedgers who are long out of the money puts should consider once again selling out of the money against their put positions if the Jun. Cattle trades above 95.500 or the Aug. above 95.00.

Silver: July Silver is currently 16 cents higher at 18.71. The market has broken out to the upside and I now feel comfortable enough to go long on breaks.

S&P's: Jun. S&P's are currently 2.25 lower at 1202.75. Better than expected earnings have pushed this market back near contract highs. Yesterday I recommend the short side at present levels with a protective buy stop just above the contract high of 1216.75. Near term support is now the 1188.00 level. If the market trades below 1195.00 lower your buy stop to the 1209.00 level.

Currencies: As of this writing the Jun. Euro is 91 higher at 1.3336, the Swiss 64 higher at .9301, the Yen 14 lower at 1.0626 and the Pound 43 lower at 1.5287. I am currently on the sidelines in the currencies. The prevailing trend remains down and I will be looking to the short side of the market next week above the 1.3500 level in the Euro and the 1.0840 level in the Yen if the market allows. The Jun. Dollar Index is 30 lower at 81.86.

Regards, Marc