Release Explanation: This report provides the number of people claiming new unemployment benefits and the number of people who are continuing to claim unemployment benefits. Both metrics are provided in weekly and in 4-week moving average form. Very important that economic forecasts are based on the labor market. Economic strength builds from the willingness/confidence of firms to hire, without a strong labor market growth is hard to achieve. Over time the Employment Data will affect all economic releases, it does however take time for labor trends to form. A currency will strengthen or weaken in-line with the other releases that the Employment Data impacts, rather than as a knee-jerk reaction to these numbers printing. Economists tend to look more at the 4-week numbers because weekly numbers can be volatile although the market reacts to the headline numbers initially.
Trade Desk Thoughts: The number of new claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending March 28 increased by 12,000 (1.83%) to 669,000, the Labor Department said today, the most since October 1982. Economists had expected to see 649,000 new claims.
The four-week average, which aims to smooth volatility in the data, rose 6,500 to 656,750. That's also the highest since the 1982 recession.
Today's report implies as many as 800,000 jobs were lost in the economy during March. The monthly non-farm payrolls report will be released tomorrow at 8:30 EDT.
The number of workers continuing to claim benefits jumped another 161,000 to 5,728,000, the highest level since the government started keeping track in 1967.
Continuing claims have risen 11 straight weeks and are up over one million since the start of the year, a reflection of how difficult it is to find work.
The unemployment rate for workers with unemployment insurance rose 0.1 percentage point to 4.3%, the highest since May 1983.
The U.S. has lost 4.4 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007 with 2.6 million of those losses coming in the last for months alone, including the largest monthly drop since 1949 in December. The unemployment rate currently stands at 8.1%, a 16-year high, but when taking into account those working part-time because full-time work isn't available along with workers who have given up on looking for employment, the percentage of unemployed rises to 14.8%, up nearly 6 percentage points from a year ago.
Forex Technical Reaction: S&P futures rose all night and the dollar declined against the better-yielding euro, pound and aussie as it gained on the yen.