New York Fashion Week Spring 2013: Celebrities On The Front Row [PHOTOS]

Autochartist - Daily Commodities Update: Wheat

Tuesday's bullish action in the grain markets set up a possible breakout from an emerging Rising Wedge chart pattern, illustrated here on an hourly time interval. After choppy mid-day trade, the nearby wheat futures surged to close on the highs just slightly above resistance established by the wedge.

Follow-through buying in Wednesday's session would initiate a topside breakout from the wedge with a move back above $7.60 per bushel. Overall strength in the grains combined with the resilience of the wheat futures amidst the broader market turmoil adds potential for this rally into a higher price level to materialize.

This pattern has been developing for a considerable time period over a large price range, which may portend a substantial move upwards if the pattern completes. A move back into the channel below $7.50 per bushel would shift the outlook to neutral, with a move back down to $7.05 or lower required to trigger a downside breakout from the wedge.

While the grain markets have begun to detach from outside influence of stock and currency swings, they remain susceptible to a return of severe selling in the major markets.

For further information on this and other Autochartist products, visit our website at www.autochartist.com

Legendary Motown Songwriter Nick Ashford Dies

Nick Ashford, half of the legendary Motown song production duo Ashford and Simpson, died on Monday, a friend and former publicist said.

Ashford, along with his wife Valerie Simpson, formed the songwriting team which produced some of Motown's greatest hits, including Ain't No Mountain High Enough, You're All I Need To Get By, Ain't Nothing Like the Real Thing, and Reach Out and Touch (Somebody's Hand).

Ashford, born in Fairfield County, South Carolina, died in a New York City hospital where he was battling throat cancer and had undergone radiation treatment, his publicist and longtime friend, Liz Rosenberg told the Associated Press.

As performers, Ashford and Simpson's best-known song is Solid (1984 US and 1985 UK). The duo was inducted into the Songwriters Hall of Fame in 2002.

In recent times, Ashford and Simpson had recorded and toured sporadically. In 1996, they opened the restaurant and live entertainment venue Sugar Bar in New York City and recorded the album Been Found with poet Maya Angelou.

In 2006, Playbill Online reported that they were writing the score for a musical based on E. Lynn Harris's novel Invisible Life.  In January 2007, they, along with Tina Turner, Mary J. Blige, Mariah Carey, Sidney Poitier, director Spike Lee and comedian Chris Tucker, accompanied Oprah Winfrey when she opened her school for disadvantaged girls in South Africa.

Amy Winehouse's 2007 CD Back to Black gave the duo writing credit for the single Tears Dry On Their Own. The track is based on a sample of Marvin Gaye and Tammi Terrell's 1967 Motown classic hit Ain't No Mountain High Enough. In January 2009, they released a CD and DVD of their live performances titled The Real Thing.

ITC Case of Microsoft vs. Google's Motorola Begins

Motorola Mobility and Microsoft Corp. went to the International Trade Commission court in Washington on Monday in the first patent battle that will take place since Google announced its plan to buy Motorola.

Microsoft is alleging that Motorola is infringing on a number of basic patents from data synchronization methods to signal strength and battery power notifications, and has requested an ITC import ban on the popular Droid 2 and Droid X smartphones, in addition to several other Motorola devices.

In an email to Bloomberg, David Howard, corporate vice president and deputy general counsel for litigation in Microsoft Corp.'s Law and Corporate Affairs Department, expressed his confidence in Microsoft's side of the case.

“We have a responsibility to our employees, customers, partners and shareholders to safeguard our intellectual property,” said Howard. “Motorola is infringing our patents and we are confident that the ITC will rule in our favor.”

Meanwhile, Motorola is also pursuing a counter-suit, according to Chief Communications Officer Jennifer Erickson.

“We have also brought legal actions of our own in the U.S. and in Europe to address Microsoft’s large scale of infringement of Motorola Mobility’s patents,” said Erickson via email, in addition to assuring Bloomberg that the company was “vigorously defending” itself “against Microsoft’s patent attack business strategy.”

The strategy is hardly Microsoft's alone; most of the major companies in the smartphone and tablet market are involved in patent disputes as plaintiff and/ or defendant. Currently, Google's Andoid OS has the largest market share and has also been a major target for lawsuits, with Apple Corp. and Microsoft mainly going after device manufacturers such as Motorola, HTC, Samsung and others.

Google's $12.5 Billion acquisition of Motorola Mobility has been considered chiefly motivated by the need to defend Google against such patent suits, and the ITC case will be the first to take place since the deal was proposed. The investigation is scheduled to continue throughout Nov. 4, when Administrative Law Judge Theodore Essex plans to release the commission's initial findings, with a planned deadline of March 5, 2012.

James Lee Phillips is a Senior Writer & Research Analyst for IBG.com. With offices in Dallas, Las Vegas, and New York, & London, IBG is quickly becoming the leading expert in Internet Marketing, Local Search, SEO, Website Development and Reputation Management. More information can be found at www.ibg.com. Daniel Frishberg is The Money Man! He is an expert on investing, online stock trading worldwide and specializes in diversified portfolios.

Michael Jackson's fourth child confirmed (video)

Michael Jackson's father Joe Jackson has confirmed that Omer Bhatti is really Michael's fourth child.

Yes, I knew he had another son, yes I did, Joe Jackson said in an interview posted on NewsOne.com.

He (Omer Bhatti) looks like a Jackson, acts like a Jackson, can dance like a Jackson, the Pop star's father added.

Michael Jackson's brother Jermaine has said Bhatti would be welcomed into the family, if he's proven a Jackson.

If Omer's his son, he's his son, Jermaine told Britain's the Daily Mail. 'We won't deny it. We are going to give him the same love and care that we give Prince and Paris and Blanket.

Omer Bhatti, a 25-year-old dancer from Oslo, Norway was allegedly born after the King of Pop had a one-night stand with a Norwegian fan in 1984. Michael Jackson had told his friends several years ago that he had fathered Bhatti, the Britain's paper said.

Under a secret agreement with the boy’s mother, Jackson moved Omer into his Neverland home in 1997 and the boy lived on and off with the entertainer for the next few years.

Bhatti has features similar to Jackson and shares an uncanny resemblance with his youngest son Prince II, knows as Blanket. Bhatti often dressed in identical clothing with Michael Jackson.

British newspapers said that Bhatti, who was referred to by the Jackson family as “Michael J”, is really a fourth child of Jackson’s.

Skype Buys GroupMe: What Does it Mean for Windows Phone 7?

Video-calling firm Skype -- which is being acquired by software giant Microsoft -- has bought GroupMe, a provider of mobile group messaging services, for less than $100 million.

The deal comes just days after the start-up firm released an updated version of its messaging app, GroupMe 3.0.

GroupMe was founded in 2010 at the Techcrunch Disrupt Hackathon and is headquartered in New York. Its technology allows users to create on-the-fly private phone groups with others, and then send text messages throughout the group and set up free conference calls.

Terms of the acquisition were not disclosed. However, Wall Street Journal reported that Skype paid about $80 million for the the start-up, which had raised $11.5 million from General Catalyst Partners, Vinod Khosla's Khosla Ventures and Lerer Ventures.

Today, we have entered into an agreement to be acquired by Skype, read a post on GroupMe's blog. Over the last few months, we had been in talks with Skype that started with discussions about potential commercial partnerships. As we got to know the core Skype team better, though, and as our conversations evolved, it quickly became evident that our visions were perfectly aligned.

The deal complements Skype's leadership in voice and video communications by providing best in class text-based communications and innovative features that enable users to connect, share locations and photos and make plans with their closest ties.

GroupMe, along with the acquisition of mobile video provider Qik -- which Skype announced earlier this year -- augments Skype's role as an innovator in driving unique mobile user experiences.

The GroupMe team has created an incredibly sticky group messaging experience that works across mobile devices and platforms, making this a perfect addition to the voice, video and text products in the Skype family, said Tony Bates, Skype's Chief Executive Officer.

The deal comes at a time when Microsoft is trying to make a strong presence in the mobile computing space with its Windows Phone 7. The company had already made a right move with buying Skype for $8.5 billion that would make video calling feature in the operating system a breeze.

Now, with Skype acquiring GroupMe, it also adds a group messaging feature that has becoming a new sensation among the younger lot, as computing shifts off the desktop and onto smartphones and tablets.

Microsoft, which is in the process of getting regulatory clearance for the Skype deal, plans to add Skype support to its Xbox and Kinect gaming devices and Windows Phone mobile operating system, and thereafter connect Skype users with its own Lync, Outlook and Xbox Live communications services.

GroupMe offers its application on Apple's iPhone, Research In Motion's BlackBerry, and phones running the Android operating system. In July, it launched a version of its application for Microsoft's Windows Phone 7.

These days, customers are not only concerned with a device but the quality of apps that can give them additional mileage. These value-added enhancements would bring a world of good to the ecosystem of Windows Phone 7.

Meanwhile, GroupMe has its own competitors from Facebook, Google and Apple as they are also rolling out smartphone messaging services.

Facebook recently launched its own group messaging app, Messenger, based on Beluga, a start-up that it acquired. Google has Google Voice, Google+ and its Huddle chat feature.

Recently, Apple unveiled iMessage for its next iOS5, which is its own free private messaging service for people who use iOS devices, and touted as a killer for the BlackBerry messaging app. Other smaller rivals include Gogii's TextPlus, Pinger's TextFree and WhatsApp.

Stock Market Inches Up, Two-Day Slump Ends

Stocks closed moderately higher today. Compared to the past week, we won't complain about any advance in the market - however small.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day up 37 points to 10,854.65. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.15 percent to close at 2.345.38 and the S&P 500 Index closed up a scant 0.03 percent at 1,123.82.

The usually staid August market has been more volatile than usual in past weeks as the global economy has taken a turn for the wose. The cost of living in America climbed in July by the most in four months, led by higher energy and food prices. The Consumer Price Index increased 0.5 percent from June, and the Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose 0.2 percent.

Some companies are trying to preserve profits by recouping higher commodity costs from earlier this year, an effort that may wane as a stagnant labor market and wage growth threaten sales. On a yearly basis, inflation surged by 3.6 percent from 2010.

Wholesale costs in America rose more than expected in July as the Producer Price Index rose by 0.2 percent in July after dropping 0.4 percent in June.

Construction began on fewer homes in July, indicating that residential real estate is failing to contribute to economic growth in America. Housing starts fell 1.5 percent to 604,000 annually, in line with market expectations, from June's 613,000 figure. Building permits, a measure for future construction, also dropped.

The number of people who bought previously occupied homes dropped in July, the third decline in four months.

Higher Open Expected For Japan Stocks

RTTNews - A strong open is expected Friday for Japan stocks, coming off a renewed rally on Wall Street. U.S. stocks moved higher on more positive earnings reports, despite another rise in unemployment claims.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 Average advanced 51.97 points or 0.51 percent to 10.165.21.

Of the Nikkei component stocks, there were 104 closing higher, 109 were lower and 12 finished unchanged.

The broader Topix index was up for a 10th straight session, gaining 6.58 points or 0.7 percent at 936.94.

The auto makers put on a show of strength, led by Nissan Motors, which gained 63 yen or 9.98 percent after a lower than expected first quarter loss. Fellow auto maker Honda rose 240 yen or 8.66 percent on a higher earnings outlook. Elsewhere in the sector, Mazda Motors jumped 21 yen or 8.64 percent, Mitsubishi Motors was up 6 yen or 3.57 percent and Toyota was up 130 yen or 3.42 percent.

Among the steel makers, Nippon Steel was up 8 yen or 2.20 percent, JFE Holdings was up 40 yen or 1.08 percent, Sumitomo Metals was down 9 yen or 3.56 percent and Kobe Steel was unchanged.

Elsewhere in the resources sector, Sumitomo Metal Mining fell 56 yen or 3.87 percent.

Electrical products maker Mitsubishi Electric posted the session's biggest percentage gain, jumping 91 yen or 14.70 percent.

Consumer electronics giant Sony leapt 160 yen or 6.82 percent. Overseas, a series of strong earnings reports and an unexpected drop in joblessness sent U.S. stocks soaring on Thursday, but stocks the major averages pared their gains in the final hour of trading. At the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 83.74 points or 0.92 percent at 9,154.46, the Nasdaq Composite index was up 16,54 points or 0.84 percent at 1,984.30 and the Standard & Poor's 500 index was up 11.60 points or 1.19 percent at 986.75.

Most major markets in the Asia/Pacific region closed higher on Thursday.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index rose 98.58 points or 0.49 percent to 20,234.08.

China's Shanghai Composite index was up 55.13 points or 1.69 percent to 3,321.56.

The BSE 30 index in India was up 214.50 points or 1.41 percent to 15,387.96.

In Indonesia, the Jakarta Composite index was up 72.32 points or 3.25 percent at 2,298.14.

South Korea's KOSPI/Seoul Composite index was up 10.42 points or 0.68 percent at 1,534.74.

The Taiwan Weighted Index was down 56.52 points or 0.80 percent at 7,027.11.

Japan is scheduled to release June numbers for consumer price index on Friday. Also due are figures for unemployment, household spending, construction orders and housing starts.

For comments and feedback: contact editorial@rttnews.com

Jack Layton Dies at Age 61

Canadian opposition leader Jack Layton died early Monday morning after battling cancer. He was 61 years old.

According to a statement released by his wife and immediate family, Layton died peacefully at his home surrounded by family and loved ones.  The statement was posted on the New Democratic Party of Canada's website.

Funeral arrangements for Layton have not yet been announced.

Layton's death was not unexpected. Saturday, he publicly released a letter thanking his colleagues, constituents and the country for supporting him while he was ill.

He also offered hope to other Canadians battling with cancer. In his note, he wrote:

To other Canadians who are on journeys to defeat cancer and to live their lives, I say this: please don't be discouraged that my own journey hasn't gone as well as I had hoped. You must not lose your own hope. Treatments and therapies have never been better in the face of this disease. You have every reason to be optimistic, determined, and focused on the future. My only other advice is to cherish every moment with those you love at every stage of your journey, as I have done this summer.

Layton was the leader of the New Democrats in the Canadian Parliament since 2003. Nycole Turmel took over the  position once Layton stepped down from office earlier this summer. She will continue leading the party on an interim basis until new elections are held.

'Ghost' is Broadway Bound [VIDEO]

Ghost, the classic film starring Demi Moore and Patrick Swayze, is heading to Broadway.

The musical version of the film is expected to open in April 2012 (with previews in March 2012), according to a statement released on Monday.

The news comes just five months after Ghost The Musical premiered in the UK, first at the Manchester Opera House before moving production to the West End theater, where it is still running. The UK version of the musical stars Richard Fleeshman and Caissie Levy as Sam Wheat and Molly Jensen, respectively.

Ghost The Musical is the product of an award-winning team of producers, including Academy Award winner Bruce Joel Rubin, Grammy Award winner Dave Stewart and Glen Ballard, who provided the music and lyrics.

The musical features all original songs, in addition to the familiar Righteous Brothers classic Unchained Melody, according to Reuters.

Since its March debut, Ghost The Musical has sold more than 275,000 tickets in the UK.

Ghost on Broadway will be directed by Matthew Warchus, who currently serves as director of the UK production. Warchus, whose previous projects include Speed-the-Plow and Boeing Boeing, won a Tony Award in 2009 for directing God of Carnage.

In 1990, Ghost grossed more than $500 million at the box office worldwide and forever changed the lives of Moore and Swayze, who became part of movie history in an iconic love scene involving a potter's wheel. The film also rewarded Whoopi Goldberg with an Oscar for her performance as the unbelievable Oda Mae Brown.

Producers of Ghost on Broadway are expected to announce the cast in coming weeks.

Don't Buy Oil Speculation

Every time the price of oil ticks higher, someone blames futures market speculators.

Let's start with a basic observation: Over the past few years, investors have decided that commodities are a valid asset class, just like stocks and bonds.

In a traditional portfolio an investor might decide to allocate some percentage of his or her assets into stocks, some into bonds of various types, and to keep some cash. For more and more investors, however, commodities are becoming part of that allocation.

As a result, financial institutions have created a number of products designed to track the performance of specific commodities or of popular commodity indexes such as the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI).

Because crude is the most heavily weighted commodity in the majority of commodity indexes, the argument goes that the steady flood of cash into commodities indexes is behind the big surge in prices of crude oil since 2004-05.

Those who make the simple argument that speculators are to blame for higher oil prices will tell you that, despite bearish oil fundamentals right now, money blindly invested in commodity indexes is causing oil prices to rally far above where they otherwise would be.

By extension, regulations limiting position sizes for futures speculators would result in a permanent lower price for crude.

One of the more eloquent and well-researched proponents of this speculation theory is Michael Masters, who testified before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs in May 2008. The following chart is taken from Masters' testimony .

Source: Michael W. Masters. Chart from: US Senate. Hearing of Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs. 05/20/2008.

Masters used data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) weekly Commitment of Traders Report to construct this chart. The bars at the bottom show the cash being invested into these passive commodity index funds; Masters even breaks down these billions in investment funds by the particular commodity index tracked.

At first glance, this chart looks compelling because the explosion in speculation appears to occur after 2003, just as oil prices began to explode to the upside.

Undoubtedly, speculators can influence crude oil prices in the short term. But the simple argument just doesn't make economic sense. Consider the following quote from Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT) on Tuesday at a CFTC hearing to consider tighter regulations of futures markets:

 [T]he bottom line is that we have got to make sure that Americans are no longer ripped off at the gas pump by the same Wall Street gamblers responsible for the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Mr. Chairman, we all learned in our economics 101 text-book that when supply is low and demand is high, prices are supposed to go up; and when supply is high and demand is low prices are supposed to go down. That is a concept that most Americans can understand.

Source: Sen. Sanders (VT). Quote from: Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Hearing on Energy Position Limits and Hedge Exemptions. 07/28/09.

It's ironic that Sen. Sanders discusses Economics 101 as basic economics explains why the speculation argument is rubbish and why oil prices rose from 2004 through mid-2008.

Those who argue speculators are to blame are essentially saying that there are two markets for oil, a physical market composed of producers and consumers of oil and a paper market made up of speculators on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) or other futures exchanges. These pundits and politicians conclude that activity in the paper oil market is pushing up prices paid in the physical market.

But there aren't two markets for crude oil. The paper and physical markets are intimately related. For Example, producers use the futures markets to hedge their exposure to oil prices; right now, crude oil futures for September 2010 are trading at USD76 per barrel, so a company could sell these futures right now to lock in USD76 oil a year from now.

Consumers have to buy gasoline to put in their cars, trucks and SUVs. Because the retail price of gasoline is related to the price of oil and gasoline futures traded on NYMEX, physical oil consumers' behavior is also influenced by NYMEX oil prices.

In fact, this appears to be the kernel of Sander's argument that the American consumer is being “ripped off” because futures market speculators are pushing oil prices higher.

Logically, if no one thought futures market speculators were pushing prices above the level at which the physical market would clear, no one would bother holding a hearing about the practice.

For illustrative purposes, let's say that oil prices would be at USD50 without the influence of speculators, but futures market buying activity pushed crude oil to USD100.

Economics is essentially the study of how scarce goods (like oil) are allocated by society. Prices are nothing more than a signal for people who consume a good and for those who produce that good.

“Price” is the signal that allows the free market to allocate scarce goods such that the quantity of goods demanded equals the supply of that good available.

At an artificially high price of USD100 a barrel, producers would want to supply more oil to the market. Rising prices would act as a signal for producers to spend more money on crude oil exploration so that they could bring more oil to market.

It would also act as an incentive for producers to tap more expensive reserves such as Canada's oil sands or deepwater Brazil--at higher prices these resources become economic.

But when it's at USD100, consumers want to use less oil. Consumers might decide sell their SUVs and buy a Prius or simply drive less. The quantity of crude demanded at USD100 is less than it would be at USD50.

In other words, rising prices also signal a need to reduce demand and bring prices back in line with supply.

If oil prices were artificially inflated by speculators, basic economics suggests we'd see some or all of the following three major effects: rising supplies as producers produce more oil to take advantage of higher prices; falling demand as consumers try to use less; and a build in crude oil inventories as the artificial price signal leads to too much supply and too little demand to clear the physical market.

Let's apply the theory to recent facts. Those who blame speculators for the rise in oil prices in recent years suggest speculation became a problem in 2004 and reached a fever pitch in mid-2008 when oil prices neared USD150 a barrel.

If these observers were correct, during this period the world should have experienced a massive jump in oil inventories, increased oil output from producers, and relatively sluggish demand for oil. These factors would cause oil inventories to build globally.

Here's a chart of US oil inventories from the end of 2003 through the middle of 2008.

Source: International Energy Agency , Bloomberg

To create this chart I added US stocks of oil, gasoline and distillate (heating oil). As you can see, inventories bounced up and down considerably, but there's no obvious trend toward inventory buildup from the end of 2003 through the middle of 2008. Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) show a similar picture for the developed world as a whole.

Obviously oil producers can't respond immediately to rising prices because it takes time to mobilize rigs and identify new projects. But if the run-up in commodity prices from 2003 to 2008 were truly artificial, we should have seen oil inventories build at some point.

This brings us to supply. The chart below shows the number of active natural gas drilling rigs outside North America.

Source: Bloomberg

As you can see, global producers responded to rising oil prices by drilling for more oil. In fact, oil and gas producers both within and outside OPEC poured record sums into new oil and gas development projects over this time period.

Unfortunately, that investment wasn't enough. Non-OPEC oil production increased from 44.85 million barrels a day in 2003 to 45.12 million in 2008, with all of that increase coming from the former Soviet Union countries. That's an increase of less than 300,000 barrels a day in a global oil market of 84.5 million barrels a day, not quite literally a drop in the bucket but close.

Of course, with non-OPEC production growth sluggish, OPEC did fill the gap, increasing its production by more than 4.5 million barrels a day between 2003 and 2008. But OPEC's production increases came directly out of spare capacity, oil production capacity OPEC can bring on-line quickly and sustain. More broadly, spare capacity is the world's cushion against sudden demand or supply shocks.

According to the IEA OPEC's effective spare capacity stood at no more than 1.7 million barrels a day in July 2008, down from 2003-04 levels and well off the 3 million to 4 million barrels a day common in the 1990s.

As for demand, check out the chart below.

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy

This chart shows the year-over-year increase in global oil consumption from 1974 through 2007. As you can see, global oil demand growth on a percentage basis hasn't been at all sluggish in recent years. In fact, you have to go back to the '70s to find a similarly significant period of strong growth in demand.

Another way to look at this is that in the '70s global oil demand growth averaged 1.58 million barrels a day followed by 500,000 in the '80s and 950,000 in the '90s.

From 2000 through 2007 global oil demand grew at 1.25 million barrels a day, the fastest pace since the '70s.

More broadly, the price signal did appear to work in the developed world. Countries in the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), including the US, saw consumption decline between 2003 and 2008. The wild card was, of course, the developing world, where consumption soared.

As incomes rise in the developing world, consumers want to buy cars and, therefore, use more oil. Ironically, poorer developing countries are less sensitive to price than the developed world. The power of the wealth effect to influence consumer behavior overcame higher gasoline prices.

Consumer and producer behavior from 2004 through mid-2008 is not consistent with artificially high oil prices. The speculation argument has little basis in reality.

The real cause of rising prices is unusually strong demand growth coupled with sluggish supply response despite record spending.

As Sen. Sanders noted at yesterday's CFTC hearing, prices rising in the face of high demand and low supply is simply Economics 101.

MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS

COTTON

General Comments:  Futures closed a little lower after a choppy session.  World economic problems seemed to be the main focus of trade.  More talk of big rains in Pakistan created ideas that crops could be lost there.  Chinese growing areas have possibly hurt by rains as well, and it was hot this year in Uzbekistan.  Chart trends still show a neutral bias, but the market appears ready to go higher.  Demand remains soft.  Countries like India are still offering Cotton at prices below those seen in the US, and the government is now allowing unrestricted exports for the next couple of months.  Bad weather in the US is still around, with little rain in the forecast for major Texas growing areas for the next week.  It is very hot in the Cotton areas of Texas.  No relief from the drought appears likely and crop losses in the state should be significant this year.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions, but a few showers are possible.  Southeast coastal areas could get big rains and winds later in the week from Hurricane Irene  Temperatures will average above to much above normal.  Texas will be mostly dry, but some showers are possible.  Temperatures will average above to much above normal.  The USDA average spot price is now 104.40 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.014 million bales, from 0.014 million yesterday.  China imported 157,066 tons of Cotton in July, down 7% from last year.  Calendar year to date imports are now 1.48 million tons, down 13% from last year.  

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 104.00, 101.00, and 100.00 October, with resistance of 110.00, 112.00, and 116.00 October.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 16, 2011            

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             

:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COTTON NO. 2 - ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 50,000 POUNDS)                                                 

CFTC Code #033661                                                    Open Interest is   246,085                

: Positions                                                                                                    

:   41,708   113,305    46,634    21,957    15,593    38,410     7,822    13,832    15,247     2,204    59,336                                                                                                               

: Changes from:     August 9, 2011                                                                             

:     -270      -378      -980       462      -429        82    -1,329    -1,010    -1,549      -277       852                                                                                                               

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              

:     16.9      46.0      19.0       8.9       6.3      15.6       3.2       5.6       6.2       0.9      24.1                                                                                                               

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   254                     

:       32        45        19        16        22        68        21        31        60        21        53 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FCOJ

General Comments:  Futures closed mixed as traders were more concerned with world economics.  A tropical system could hit the US later this week, with Florida likely to be the first port of entry.  The system intensified overnight and is now Hurricane Irene.  It will be watched for the exact track and strength, but could remain a weak hurricane by the time it hits southern parts of the state.  It could bring some significant rains and winds to the state.  Charts show that trends are mixed as traders look for news and a reason to buy or sell.  Florida for now remains mostly warm and is getting scattered showers.  Brazil is seeing moderate temperatures and mostly dry conditions for now. 

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers and storms.  A tropical hurricane could hit the state later this week.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 170.00, 164.00, and 159.00 September, with resistance at 177.00, 179.00, and 183.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 16, 2011            

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             

:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE - ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               

CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    36,985                

: Positions                                                                                                    

:    9,791    25,294     3,889       877        98     9,861       812       665     1,182       261     7,654                                                                                                               

: Changes from:     August 9, 2011                                                                             

:    1,012    -3,476      -352       -75      -131    -4,495       258       231       167       -62       765                                                                                                               

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              

:     26.5      68.4      10.5       2.4       0.3      26.7       2.2       1.8       3.2       0.7      20.7                                                                                                               

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    99                     

:       23        22         8         .         .        25         7         4        15        13        19 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COFFEE 

General Comments:  Futures were higher Friday on follow through buying from the big day on Thursday.  Industry and origin appeared to be quiet.  Brazil is not selling much, and Central America and Colombia can only sell new crop as the old crop appears sold out.  However, industry is said to be covered for now.  Weather in Brazil is good, but other parts of Latin America could use improved weather.  It was too dry in Central America at flowering time and reports of too much rain in Colombia.  Warm temperatures are expected for much of the week in Brazil.  A tropical system brought some big rains to southern Mexico and northern Central America over the weekend.  Chart trends remain up in London and turned up last week in New York and Sao Paulo.  

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.478 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 219.81 ct/lb.  Brazil should see mostly dry weather in the north and showers in the south.  Temperatures will average near to above normal this week, but cooler this weekend. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 278.00 December.  Support is at 263.00, 257.00, and 252.00 December, and resistance is at 273.00, 277.00, and 281.00 December.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2560 November.  Support is at 2280, 2230, and 2200 November, and resistance is at 2360, 2380, and 2420 November.  Trends in Sao Paulo are up with objectives of 350.00, 362.00, and 372.00 December.  Support is at 338.00, 335.00, and 323.00 December, and resistance is at 348.00, 349.00, and 356.00 December.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 16, 2011            

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             

:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 

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COFFEE C - ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 37,500 POUNDS)                                                     

CFTC Code #083731                                                    Open Interest is   154,795                

: Positions                                                                                                    

:   46,950    67,697    29,738    10,059     7,306    20,050    16,442     6,602     1,467     4,673    34,049                                                                                                               

: Changes from:     August 9, 2011                                                                             

:   -8,254    -1,829       555      -332    -2,309     1,859    -4,036    -1,878      -302     1,486   -11,546                                                                                                               

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              

:     30.3      43.7      19.2       6.5       4.7      13.0      10.6       4.3       0.9       3.0      22.0                                                                                                               

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   318                     

:       82        91        21        12        20        58        40        40        38        42        63 

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SUGAR                                                            

General Comments:  Futures closed sharply higher in New York and in London Friday on fund buying.  There just has not been any news to excite the bulls lately, and fundamentals still seem to be more negative than just a few months ago.  That did not matter on Friday.  Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but production in other parts of the world seems strong.  Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time.  Chart trends turned up with the price action last week. 

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.  China imported 256,474 tons of Sugar in July, down 16% from last year.  Calendar year to date imports are now 776,945 tons, up 9% from last year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3310 October.  Support is at 3090, 2950, and 2930 October, and resistance is at 3130, 3170, and 3200 October.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 822.00 and 883.00 October.  Support is at 775.00, 758.00, and 748.00 October, and resistance is at 797.00, 801.00, and 805.00 October.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 16, 2011            

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             

:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 

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SUGAR NO. 11 - ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 112,000 POUNDS)                                                

CFTC Code #080732                                                    Open Interest is   813,714                

: Positions                                                                                                    

:  139,127   383,129   142,482    79,789    64,410   144,497    18,000    51,706    31,639     5,200   148,899                                                                                                               

: Changes from:     August 9, 2011                                                                             

:   -1,625   -11,082    -1,904     1,457       173   -13,532     1,178    -1,858     3,284       401    -5,132                                                                                                               

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              

:     17.1      47.1      17.5       9.8       7.9      17.8       2.2       6.4       3.9       0.6      18.3                                                                                                               

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   242                     

:       54        61        20        11        27        65        10        34        34        36        58 

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COCOA                                                                 

General Comments:  Futures were higher in New York and lower in London in consolidation trading on Friday.  Cocoa may still have found a bottom as futures have already fallen quite a bit since the end of the war and the elections.  Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa keep the selling pressure around, but the region is now between harvests so offers are less.  Trends are still down overall on the charts.  For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally.  Fundamentals have not really changed.  Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market.  Ideas are that current weather patterns in Africa are not good and that production in western Africa can drop next year. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average above normal.  ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 4.009 million bags.  ICE said that Cocoa deliveries are 2 contracts today and now total 2 contracts for the month. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2950, 2910, and 2900 September, with resistance at 3090, 3135, and 3145 September.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1855, 1840, and 1830 September, with resistance at 1920, 1935, and 1975 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 16, 2011            

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             

:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 

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COCOA - ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 10 METRIC TONS)                                                       

CFTC Code #073732                                                    Open Interest is   189,409                

: Positions                                                                                                    

:   88,970    96,366    19,118    10,496     3,372    30,622    31,081    16,247     2,521     2,297    19,999                                                                                                               

: Changes from:     August 9, 2011                                                                             

:    2,092    -4,717    -1,922       -48    -1,136    -1,809     1,659    -4,814       623       290      -690                                                                                                               

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              

:     47.0      50.9      10.1       5.5       1.8      16.2      16.4       8.6       1.3       1.2      10.6                                                                                                               

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   175                     

:       35        39        18         8        10        33        39        27        21        13        21 

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ISE FX Swiss Franc* ST: rebound in sight.

Update on supports and resistances.

Resistance3 : 116
Resistance2 : 113
Resistance1 : 110
Last Price : 108.88
Pivot Point: 106
Support1 : 106
Support2 : 104
Support3 : 101.3

Pivot: 106

Our preference: Long positions above 106 with targets @ 110 & 113 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 106 look for further downside with 104 & 101.3 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a rebound.

116
113
110
108.88 (last)
106
104
101.3



*USD/CHF Index: the ISE Exchange measures the strength and weakness of the US DOLLAR versus the SWISS FRANC. For details go to www.ise.com

ISE FX Japanese Yen* ST: the downside prevails.

Update on supports and resistances.

Resistance3 : 102.5
Resistance2 : 99.65
Resistance1 : 97.5
Last Price : 95.6
Pivot Point: 97.5
Support1 : 91.75
Support2 : 90
Support3 : 87.5

Pivot: 97.5

Our preference: Short positions below 97.5 with targets @ 91.75 & 90 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 97.5 look for further upside with 99.65 & 102.5 as targets.

Comment: the upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 97.5.

102.5
99.65
97.5
95.6 (last)
91.75
90
87.5



*USD/JPY Index: the ISE Exchange measures the strength and weakness of the US DOLLAR versus the JAPANESE YEN. For details go to www.ise.com

Republican Presidential Candidates: Palin, Perry and Cast Will Make For Captivating Reality Show

The Republican presidential nomination race is starting to take shape as one of the most captivating competitions and reality shows we've seen in years. Think America's Biggest Loser meets Extreme Makeover meets Jon and Kate Plus 8.

Mitt Romney as a front-runner didn't do much for ratings, but Rick Perry and his Perryisms changed that. Now, Sarah Palin appears set to come on board as a leading cast member, and we already know from previous experience she's rarely a dull moment.

Former Bush advisor Karl Rove says Palin, the former Alaska governor and VP presidential candidate turned conservative commentator and celebrity, is more likely to run for president than not.

Rove hinted at a formal announcement as early as Sept. 3. And even that had a captivating flair, as Rove, speaking on Fox News, suggested that Palin has been a presidential-run tease to date.

Rove said it's time for Palin to stop teasing and show whether or not she's serious about a run. And, all indications are that she is about to announce that she's running for president.

In a Fox News interview Sunday, Rove said a video released on Friday by Palin's political action committee looked very pre-presidential. Rove is a former advisor to President George W. Bush and a key Republican activist and fundraiser, and Palin is a Republican as well with close ties to Rove. 

Her difficulty is, if she doesn't get in shortly after next week, then I think people are going to basically say she's not in, she won't be in, if she gets in, I'm not going to be for her, Rove said. You can only tease so many times in the political process, and I think she is getting to the end of that. 

Palin joined Sen. John McCain's Republican presidential candidate in a run against Barack Obama the the campaign was marred by disorganization and lack of a clear message that resonated with the public. In the couple of years since, Palin has become a recognized conservative spokesperson and celebrity.

She became known during her VP candidacy as a loose verbal cannon, and the media loved her, whether they would admit it or not, because she was always worth of a most quotable quote.

As Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America -- where do they go? It's Alaska. It' just right over the border, Palin once famously said, explaining why Alaska's proximity to Russia gives her foreign policy experience.

Another famous Palin quote: 'Redudiate, misunderestimate, wee-wee'd up.' English is a living language. Shakespeare liked to coin new words too. Got to celebrate it! Palin sent that tweet in response to being ridiculed for saying the word redudiate.

But now, after several years of experience on the front lines, she's perhaps the refined, experienced candidate compared to Perry, the Texas governor who last week called Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke treasonous and is coming under fire for news that he had a stem cell treatment.

Perry has questioned if President Barack Obama, a Democrat, is passionate about America, and he's hinted that states should have rights over the federal government if the federal government can't get it right.

Palin has been coy on whether or not she's running for president, but Rove says it appears she's likely in.

The schedule she's got next week in Iowa, it looks like that of a candidate, not celebrity, he said on Fox News Sunday.

Palin has a major speech scheduled for a Tea Party event in Iowa on Sept. 3. Rove suggested that speech is prime for announcing a presidential bid.

A recent poll in New Hampshire showed Romney, the former Massachusets governor, remains in the GOP lead, but that Perry was catching up fast after announcing his official bid for the Republican party's presidential nomination the week before. In his first week on the campaign trail, Perry had a throng of reporters following him and he was a lead search word on google -- as his quotes and flair for the dramatic statement had journalists hanging on his every word.

Now that it appears Palin is entering the race within two weeks, the Republican race holds the promise of a captivating realty show. The winner will likely face Obama in the general election, but getting there will be a stiff challenge fraught potentially with bold, if not wild, statements and edgy conservative views colorfully stated on what is right and wrong with America -- all along the way.

The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher

Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 23 lower at 139'16 and the 10 Yr. Note 15 lower at 130'10. As I mentioned Friday, these markets look very attractive for a short sale but I am going to hold myself back and look to the options market (either Oct. or Dec.) for either puts and/or put spreads that are both cheap and out of the money. Will there be QE3, a question that is gaining currency from many analysts?

Grains: On Friday Nov. Beans closed 7 higher at 1368'4, Dec. Corn 12 higher at 725'2 and Dec. Wheat 22 higher at 761'2. Over night Beans were 14 higher, Corn 8 higher and Wheat 11 higher. We remain long call spreads in Dec. Corn. You might consider rollin the long leg of any call spreads into a higher strike price and taking some money off the table.

Cattle: Friday's Cattle on Feed Report showed the following: On feed 108% of a year ago, in line with expectations. Placed in July 122% of a year ago vs. pre-report expectations of 117%. Marketed 100% of a year ago vs. expectations of 96%.Early expectations are for a lowering opening this morning because of the on feed figure, which is more bearish than the marketing figure which was constructive. If you remain short Oct. Cattle continue to use a protective buy stop at 116.80. If you remain short Oct. Feeders continue to use a protective buy stop at 135.50. If these markets trade 75 lower or more this morning, lower your stops by a like amount or take profits.

Silver: Sept. Silver is currently 75 cents higher at 43.15 after making an overnight high of 44.08. We continue to hold a small long position. I suggest rolling Sept. positions into Dec. before the end of the week.

S&P's: Sept. S&P's are currently 16.00 higher at 1140.00. Support remains at 1117.50 and resistance remains in the 1153.00. I prefer the long side of the market on breaks at this time.

Currencies: As of this writing the Sept. Euro is 36 higher at 1.4418, the Swiss 10 higher at 1.2723 and the Pound 12 higher at 1.6489. I remain on the sidelines.

Regards,

Marc
888.908.4310 | 312.264.4310
mnemenoff@pricegroup.com

ISE FX Canadian Dollar* ST: the downside prevails.

Update on supports and resistances.

Resistance3 : 121.25
Resistance2 : 117.5
Resistance1 : 113
Last Price : 108
Pivot Point: 113
Support1 : 107.8
Support2 : 104
Support3 : 100

Pivot: 113

Our preference: Short positions below 113 with targets @ 107.8 & 104 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 113 look for further upside with 117.5 & 121.25 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is capped by a bearish trend line.

121.25
117.5
113
108 (last)
107.8
104
100



*USD/CAD Index: the ISE Exchange measures the strength and weakness of the US DOLLAR versus the CANADIAN DOLLAR. For details go to www.ise.com

Pre-Opening Corn Market Report for 8/22/2011

December corn was up 8 1/4 cents late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look positive, with strong global equity markets and a weaker US dollar seen as supportive. Weekend rain amounts were disappointing for producers in eastern Iowa, west-central Illinois and parts of Indiana, and this helped support renewed buying support in corn. Demand fears are still prevalent, as traders see Black Sea wheat, Ukrainian corn, Brazilian corn and even US wheat in some areas priced cheaper than US corn. However, traders also see a potential loss of 500,000-1.0 million in harvested corn acreage in the US and the potential for even further revisions lower in yield ahead as positive factors for prices. The Commitments of Traders Futures reports as of August 16th showed non-commercial traders were net long 311,254 contracts, an increase of 16,587 contracts in just one week. The buying trend is seen as a short-term positive force. Commodity index traders held a net long position of 346,522 contracts, down 7,665. December corn closed 12 1/4 cents higher on the session Friday and closed up 10 3/4 cents for the week. The market saw pressure early due to collapsing world stock markets, but a recovery in the US stock market helped to support the market with fund traders noted buyers. Corn continues to find support from talk that the yield outlook from producers looking at samples from fields in Iowa and Illinois look smaller than the yield outlook from the USDA in the last production report. Keep in mind, the August crop report showed Illinois yield at 170 bushels per acre, up 13 from last year, and Iowa yield at 177, up 12 from last year. Private exporters reported to the USDA that Japan bought 140,000 tonnes of corn from the US for the 2012/13 marketing year. This news was offset by a report that Taiwan bought 62,000 tonnes of Brazilian corn. The upside may have been limited by talk that demand is sluggish for US exporters. Traders see weekly crop conditions down 1-2% in this afternoon's weekly crop update. The Cattle on Feed report on Friday showed placements up 22% from last year, which leaves August 1st feedlot supply up 7.6% from last year. Traders will monitor a large annual crop tour this week for clues on yield. China imported 172,624 tonnes of corn in July from 11,234 tonnes in June.

Erim Andrews 911 call released online

A 911 call from ESPN reporter Erin Andrews was posted online by TMZ.com where she says two men are lurking outside her home in Georgia.

I did nothing wrong, and I'm been treated like f-- Britney Spears, and it s--s. she says, according to the recording attributed to her.

When police arrived they found two members of the news media who were allowed to leave without incident, TMZ.com reported.

The tape can be listened here.

Selena Gomez to Anchor 2011 VMAs Pre-Show

Actress-turned-pop star Selena Gomez has been chosen to anchor the MTV Video Music Awards pre-show airing on Aug. 28 at 8 p.m. ET/PT.

The Wizards of Waverly Place actress and platinum recording artist will interview celebs and musicians who will walk down the black carpet in front of Los Angeles' Nokia Theatre.

I am very excited to be a part of the 2011 VMAs! After all of my years watching the VMAs, the pre-show has always been one of my favorite parts. It is a true honor to be hosting from the black carpet this year, Selena Gomez told MTV in a statement.

MTV personalities as well as fellow artist Cobra Starship will help teen fashion diva to host the show. The Cobra Starship will perform their dance track You Make Me Feel live during the VMAs Pre-Show.

We are so excited to be a part of the 2011 VMAs! I grew up watching them every year and it was an honor to be nominated two years ago and it is an even bigger honor to be able to play the pre-show this year, guitarist Ryland Blackinton told MTV.

I will never forget when Pat Smear left the Foo Fighters live during the pre-show and I'm planning on having him replace me this year, Blackinton said.

Lady Gaga will be opening the 2011 MTV VMAs. Gaga took a moment with MTV News’ Sway to talk about how this year’s performance will relate to her last one on the VMA stage in 2009.

Performers like Lil Wayne, Chris Brown, Adele, and Bruno Mars will also join Lady Gaga.

MTV will pay two tributes this time; one is going to salute Britney Spears and will likely get a dose of Michael Jackson, Madonna and Janet Jackson as the Southern Belle's music inspirations, while the other tribute is to Amy Winehouse.

VMAs Revealed will reveal some behind-the-scene stories about last year's show. The special segment will be airing this weekend. The show will reveal stories behind Rihanna's red wig and Justin Bieber's outdoor performance among other things.

On June 19 Gomez co-hosted the 2011 MuchMusic Video Awards. Gomez also hosted the Sears Arrive Air Band Casting Call – to select five people for the first-ever Sears Air Band in August 2009.

Dudley: Fed won't have to raise rates prematurely

The U.S. Federal Reserve will not have to raise rates prematurely to head off inflation because of the central bank's ability to pay interest on reserves, New York Fed president William Dudley said on Wednesday.

Dudley, answering questions from the audience after a speech, said being able pay interest on reserves meant excess reserves will not inevitably trigger inflation.

Asked about whether the Fed would extend its consumer and small business loan program, the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), Dudley noted that under a section of the Federal Reserve Act, the program is approved only when conditions are unusual and exigent.

Certain sectors of the economy are still very strained, and the commercial real estate sector, for one, is likely to be under stress for a considerable period, he said.

The Federal Reserve will have to evaluate if that means that conditions are unusual and exigent and for how long that is likely to last, he said. We will definitely be taking up this subject in the near future.

Asked about whether the Fed would sell the longer-term securities it had bought during the crisis, Dudley said that while the Fed has traditionally been a buy-and-hold investor, if it decided to sell these securities it would be an important event for the market.

We would have to be careful to prepare the market for that eventuality, Dudley said.

Asked about the Fed's support for the securitization market, Dudley said there was a limit to what the Fed could legally do.

Silver Technical Precious Metals (2011-08-22)

Weekly Report 22/08 -26/ 08/ 2011

Our bullish expectations during the past week were achieved; however, the bearish butterfly harmonic pattern failed to stop silver's bullish momentum, where with the start of a new week, the metal breached 61.8% Fibonacci correction as shown above, supporting the possibility of forming new harmonic structure, which couldassist the metal to reach 45.84 and then 47.60. The suggested structure is close to a Bat harmonic pattern, while we will track the metal's movement during the suggested upside move to complete the pattern. Momentum indicators are within overbought areas, which could affect the upside move sharply.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 39.75 and key resistance now at 46.85

The short-term trend is to the downside targeting 26.65 as far as areas of 48.50 remain intact with weekly closing.

Previous Report

Majors Daily Forecast 22 August 2011

EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.4335 - 1.4435
Trend: Upward
Buy at 1.4347 SL 1.4315 TP 1.4424

USD/JPY
Trading range: 76.95 - 76.00
Trend: Downward
Sell at 76.82 SL 77.14 TP 76.10

GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6455 - 1.6570
Trend: Upward
Buy at 1.6469 SL 1.6437 TP 1.6557

USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.7905 - 0.7800
Trend: Downward
Sell at 0.7892 SL 0.7924 TP 0.7808

Today's Economic Calendar:
Time GMT, Country, Indicator, Forecast, Prior

00:00 Switzerland Real Estate Index Family Homes - 392.3
12:30 USA Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index -0.48 -0.46

*Please note that the daily forecast is sent on time to subscribers only, who receive also updates, evening forecast, news and real time trading signals, from which we have made today so far +89, total on Friday +112 pips, as shown at our web site.

Dollar Rally Fizzles As Stocks Look To Rebound Thursday

RTTNews - The dollar leveled off versus other majors Thursday morning after a strong performance in the previous session as US stocks appeared poised to snap back, fueling renewed risk appetite.

While weakening versus sterling, the dollar was able to hold onto most of its big gains versus the euro and sat practically still against the yen.

Traders will be eying the customary weekly jobless claims report for the week ended July 25th, which is due at 8:30 AM ET.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits showed a moderate increase in the week ended July 18th, with the increase coming roughly in line with economist estimates. The report showed that jobless claims rose to 554,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 524,000.

The dollar eased to 1.4066 versus the euro, moving slightly from yesterday's 2-week high of 1.4006. Earlier in the week, the dollar came within a whisker of setting a new 2009 low, slipping near June's low mark of 1.4338.

Eurozone economic sentiment improved for the fourth consecutive month in July, a monthly survey from the European Commission showed Thursday. The index stood at 76, up from a revised reading of 73.2 recorded in the prior month. Economists were expecting the indicator to climb to 75.

Versus the sterling the dollar continued its run of choppy trading, slipping to 1.6500 from a weekly high of 1.6337. On a longer term basis, the dollar is little changed over the past two months.

House prices in the U.K. rose for the third straight month in July, with the pace exceeding economists' expectations, suggesting that prices would be much better by the end of this year compared with the beginning.

House prices rose 1.3% month-on-month in July after climbing a revised 1% in June, data released by the Nationwide building society showed Thursday.

The buck held its ground versus the yen, moving near 95 in quiet dealing. The pair seems to have found a solid range since the dollar improved from a 5-month low of 91.87 set earlier this month.

The dollar was slightly weaker versus the loonie Thursday morning, easing a cent to C$1.0840. In the process, the dollar moved back toward a 10-month low of C$1.0749, set earlier this week.

Canadian industrial product price data is due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Analysts predict prices fell 1.1% in the month of June, compared to a 0.1% jump in May. At the same time, raw materials price index rose 3% in June, compared to 2.2% in May.

For comments and feedback: contact editorial@rttnews.com

Kim Kardashian Wedding Dress: About All Three Vera Wang Creation [VIDEO]

Stunning bride Kim Kardashian didn't wear one or two gowns at her wedding on Saturday to Kris Humphries — she wore three dresses. Close family friend Vera Wang created Kardashian's custom couture wedding gowns.

But Kim didn't know which of the three gowns to walk down the aisle in.

I truly, up until two days before [the wedding] could not decide which to wear, Kardashian told People in an exclsive interview.

A few consultations with family, friends and Wang, and Kardashian chose to wear what she told the magazine she calls the princess look gown. That gown is a ball gown with full tulle skirt, basque waist and hand-pieced Chantilly lace appliqué on bodice and train.

She accented it with a Lorraine Schwartz headpiece and a cathedral-length veil with hand-pieced Chantilly lace appliqué at the hem and a lightly shirred blusher layer, according to People.

Fast forward to the first dance and Kardashian stunned the crowd in a new outfit: the gown that ended up being my favorite, she told People. It was a sexier number: a Georgette mermaid dress with hand-pieced Chantilly lace appliqué on bodice. The skirt had hand-cut organza petals intermixed with Chantilly lace motifs and organza sprig embroidery, as described by People.

When the part rolled around, Kardashian's final change of clothes was a bias-cut crepe-back satin gown with v-neck and circle skirt. She accessorized all three looks with custom Lorraine Schwartz jewels, reported People.

It was a wonderful process, Wang told the magazine. The fact that she came to me for having a certain classicism mixed with modernity, I feel very honored.