Based on Monday morning's brief bounce up on the EUR/USD, some of the news networks are already calling a new turn for the Euro (the very same networks which were talking parity just a week before). I'm not quite ready to be a bull just yet.

The CFTC just issued their latest Commitment of Traders report, citing an all-time low in bearish positions. There's another round of talks scheduled this week, attempting to convince bond holders to take a deeper cut in an effort to reduce the Greek debt burden. If a consensus isn't reached, it is not yet clear that Greece will be able to meet its obligations and targets for the first part of 2012.
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So where should we be looking for our next EUR/USD downside target?

According to Fibonacci projections, our next target is at 1.2574, and any up moves we might see today are merely a retracement to test the new weekly central pivot point at 1.2803 as resistance. If Greece gets a reprieve and 1.2803 fails to hold, then there might be an opportunity to trade back up to 1.2968

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