Based on Monday morning's brief bounce up on the EUR/USD, some of the news networks are already calling a new turn for the Euro (the very same networks which were talking parity just a week before). I'm not quite ready to be a bull just yet.
The CFTC just issued their latest Commitment of Traders report, citing an all-time low in bearish positions. There's another round of talks scheduled this week, attempting to convince bond holders to take a deeper cut in an effort to reduce the Greek debt burden. If a consensus isn't reached, it is not yet clear that Greece will be able to meet its obligations and targets for the first part of 2012.
So where should we be looking for our next EUR/USD downside target?
According to Fibonacci projections, our next target is at 1.2574, and any up moves we might see today are merely a retracement to test the new weekly central pivot point at 1.2803 as resistance. If Greece gets a reprieve and 1.2803 fails to hold, then there might be an opportunity to trade back up to 1.2968