Four teams remain in the hunt for the 2015 Super Bowl, having advanced to Championship Weekend. The Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots will compete in the NFC and AFC title games.
All of the home teams were favored in the first two weekends of the playoffs, and that trend will continue on Sunday. Seattle and New England, who entered the postseason as the No.1 seeds, are both significant favorites in their own stadiums.
Even though the Packers won 12 regular-season games and have the likely MVP as their quarterback, they are getting more than a touchdown in the NFC Championship Game. Green Bay and Seattle met at CenturyLink Field in the 2014 season opener, and the Seahawks won in a 36-16 rout. Seattle has won their last five home games by at least 10 points each.
If recent history means anything, the game between Green Bay and Seattle might be closer than the betting odds would indicate. The last seven NFC title games have all been decided by seven points or less.
The over/under for Green Bay vs. Seattle opens the week at 47 points. Five of the Packers’ regular-season games didn’t reach at least 47 points, and their playoff game with the Dallas Cowboys finished at exactly 47 points. The Seahawks and Carolina Panthers totaled 48 points, after no Seattle game had reached that total since Week 10.
In the AFC, New England is favored by seven points at home for a second straight week. They’ll face an Indianapolis team that wasn’t expected to reach the title game, considering they were seven-point underdogs in their Divisional Playoff visit to the Denver Broncos. The Patriots visited the Colts in Week 11 and won by 22 points.
Sunday marks New England’s fourth straight trip to the AFC Championship Game, and they were beaten by double digits in each of their last two title games. From 1999-2012, 11 of 14 AFC champions advanced to the Super Bowl by beating their opponent by at least a touchdown.
New England and Indianapolis could produce a high-scoring affair, since they finished the 2014 season with the No.2 and No.3 scoring offenses in the AFC. The Colts have played low-scoring games of late, with their last six contests finishing with a total of less than 50 points. The Patriots and Baltimore Ravens totaled 66 points in their second-round playoff game.
Below are the complete betting lines for both conference championship games, including the point spreads and totals. These are the consensus odds from multiple sportsbooks in Las Vegas.
Green Bay Packers (+7.5) at Seattle Seahawks, 47
Indianapolis Colts (+7) at New England Patriots, 54