Every NFL team has played at least half of their schedule, giving a pretty clear picture of where each club ranks, compared to the rest of the league. This has been reflected in this week’s betting lines, with every point spread set at either at least a touchdown or less than three points.
Last week, six underdogs won outright, while two more (Texans and Vikings) blew leads at the end of the fourth quarter. Below are picks against the spread for every game in Week 10.
Washington Redskins (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Christian Ponder hasn’t been anything special since winning back the starting job, but he’s certainly been serviceable. The Redskins have one of the league’s worst secondaries, so this might be the game where he throws a few touchdowns. Washington beat the San Diego Chargers last week, but they haven’t been able to play well in back-to-back weeks.
Prediction ATS: Minnesota
Jacksonville Jaguars (+12) at Tennessee Titans
The only time the Jaguars covered a spread this season was when they were the biggest underdogs in NFL history. They’ve lost all their games by double-digits, even when playing teams with a losing record. At 4-4, the Titans are good enough to beat Jacksonville by two touchdowns.
Prediction ATS: Tennessee
Philadelphia Eagles (+1) at Green Bay Packers
The injury to Aaron Rodgers moved the betting line by nine points, and the Eagles might even be favored by the time the game begins. Nick Foles’s seven touchdowns against the Raiders were an aberration, but he’ll still be the best quarterback on the field when he plays opposite Seneca Wallace. Wallace had a 53.4 passer rating in place of Rodgers against the Bears, and he looked awful the last time he got playing time in 2011.
Prediction ATS: Philadelphia
Buffalo Bills (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
In the past two weeks, the Bills have struggled while playing against top competition. However, they’ve managed to keep most games close, especially against the lower echelon teams in the league. The Steelers have had a hard time scoring all year and have proven to be the worse team.
Prediction ATS: Buffalo
Oakland Raiders (+7) at New York Giants
After a rough start, the Giants' defense has been terrific during their two-game winning streak, preventing the opposition from reaching the end zone in either contest. New York, though, faced arguably the two worst quarterbacks to start a game this season in Josh Freeman and Matt Barkley. In the two victories, Eli Manning has gotten away with bad throws that he made during the team’s six-game losing streak, and he might not be as fortunate on Sunday.
Prediction ATS: Oakland
St. Louis Rams (+9.5) at Indianapolis Colts
With Kellen Clemens set to start at quarterback for the Rams, the Colts have a major advantage at quarterback. It’d be a big upset if St. Louis could pull off the victory, but Indianapolis could allow the Rams to stay in the game for most of the way. The Colts have actually played better against top competition. At home, they lost to the Dolphins and barely beat the Raiders. Last week, they needed a late comeback to defeat the 2-6 Texans, and their offense has clearly been affected by the loss of Reggie Wayne.
Prediction ATS: St. Louis
Seattle Seahawks (-6) at Atlanta Falcons
It might be a rematch of last year’s playoff game, but the Falcons are a completely different team 10 months later. Their only victories have come against the winless Buccaneers and the 3-6 Rams. Matt Ryan has made too many mistakes in recent weeks, and he clearly misses Julio Jones. Roddy White might play, but it’s unknown how effective he will be coming off an injury. The Seahawks are known for being great at home, but they’re also just one of eight teams with a winning record against the spread on the road.
Prediction ATS: Seattle
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Baltimore Ravens
The Bengals have proven to be one of the best teams in the AFC, but they’ve suffered a few head-scratching losses. After blowing a late lead to the Dolphins last week, they could be due for one of their better performances on Sunday. The Ravens are good at home, but they have just one win since Week Three.
Prediction ATS: Cincinnati
Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Chicago Bears
In two games this year, Josh McCown has actually outperformed Jay Cutler. Considering McCown’s 11-year history in the NFL, he could be due for a bad game on Sunday. Calvin Johnson might be playing better than anyone right now, and a below-average Bears’ defense will have a difficult time keeping him out of the end zone.
Prediction ATS: Detroit
Carolina Panthers (+6) at San Francisco 49ers
The two teams have had almost identical seasons, losing two of their first three games, followed by several blow out victories. Coming into the season, the 49ers were expected to be the much better team, but through eight games they have proven to be similar to the Panthers, not six points better.
Prediction ATS: Carolina
Houston Texans (+3) at Arizona Cardinals
Houston may have lost on "Sunday Night Football," but they looked like a much different team with Casey Keenum at quarterback. With the 25-year-old at the helm, they lost by one to the undefeated Chiefs and almost upset the first-place Colts. Arizona may be the place where the Texans pick up their first win since Sept. 15.
Prediction ATS: Houston
Denver Broncos (-7) at San Diego Chargers
The Chargers are one of the more inconsistent teams in football, but they have stepped up against the better teams in the league. San Diego beat Dallas and Indianapolis when they were home underdogs. They might not defeat Peyton Manning and the Broncos, but they should have a chance in the fourth quarter to pull off the upset.
Prediction ATS: San Diego
Dallas Cowboys (+6.5) at New Orleans Saints
The Saints underperformed last week with a loss to the Jets, but things should be different when they return home. New Orleans continues to cover the spread at the Mercedes-Benze Superdome with ease, and this weekend should be no different when Drew Brees faces one of the worst passing defenses in football.
Prediction ATS: New Orleans
Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Even with a 10-point lead heading into the fourth quarter in Week Nine, the Bucs still couldn’t get their first win of 2013. The bullying controversy involving Richie Incognito and Jonathan Martin is creating new headlines every day, but the Dolphins are still good enough to beat lowly Tampa Bay.
Prediction ATS: Miami