Last week had, maybe, the most surprising results of the 2013 NFL season. The Jaguars and Buccaneers, who have been winless all year, both picked up their first victories. A few underdogs who were getting at least a touchdown also won outright, with the Rams and Panthers pulling of big road upsets.
In Week 11, most of the point spreads are within a field goal. Below are picks against the spread for every game.
Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Tennessee Titans
It’s clear that the Titans’ hot start was an aberration with losses in four of their last five games. Ryan Fitzpatrick is better than most backups, but there’s a reason he didn’t begin the season as a starting quarterback. The Colts should bounce-back after their worst game of the season.
Prediction ATS: Indianapolis
Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With a combined record of 3-15 between the two clubs, this could end up being the worst game in Week 11. Considering both teams have played so poorly, the best bet might be to take the home team that is getting the points.
Prediction ATS: Tampa Bay
New York Jets (+1) at Buffalo Bills
If the “win one, lose one” trend continues for the Jets, the Bills will come out victorious on Sunday. Of late, though, Buffalo hasn’t played like the team that was always competitive in the first half of the season. They’re averaging 13 points per game in the last three weeks, and it could be hard for them to move the ball against Rex Ryan's defense, who have had two weeks to prepare.
Prediction ATS: New York
Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger might be able to have one of his better games this season, facing a team that is 27th against the pass. Calvin Johnson seems to have a big week every time he steps on the field, but the Steelers could slow him down, somewhat, since they give up just over 200 yards through the air per game.
Prediction ATS: Pittsburgh
Washington Redskins (+3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Nick Foles has been incredible since taking over for Michael Vick, completing 16 touchdown passes and throwing no interceptions. The Redskins’ secondary is below-average, and if he continues his strong play it could be a long day for Washington.
Prediction ATS: Philadelphia
San Diego Chargers (-1.5) at Miami Dolphins
The Richie Incognito bullying scandal won’t seem to go away, and it might be taking its toll on the Dolphins. Miami lost to the lone remaining winless team on Monday with a defeat to the Buccaneers. The Chargers have been up and down, but they could take advantage of the Dolphins' situation and pick up a much-needed road win.
Prediction ATS: San Diego
Baltimore Ravens (+3) at Chicago Bears
The defending Super Bowl champs are no longer a title contender, but they’re in every game. After being blown out by the Broncos in the opener, their four losses have come by an average of 3.5 points. Luke McCown has overachieved in his time as the starter, but his performance should come back down to earth eventually.
Prediction ATS: Baltimore
Cleveland Browns (+6) at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have been dominant at home against the spread covering all four games. They’ve also yet to lose outright in front of their fans, defeating the likes of the Packers, Patriots and Lions. Cincinnati should be focused as they look to avenge their Week Four loss in Cleveland.
Prediction ATS: Cincinnati
Oakland Raiders (+7) at Houston Texans
Only the Cowboys have a better record against the spread than the Raiders. Since replacing Matt Schaub, Casey Keenum has made the Texans more competitive, but they still haven’t won in two months. The Raiders have played most of their games close, and Houston’s two victories came by less than seven points.
Prediction ATS: Oakland
Arizona Cardinals (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars finally got over the hump in Week 10 by defeating the Titans, but they’re probably still the worst team in the league. The Cardinals have taken care of business against bad teams, with three of their four losses coming to the top three clubs in the NFC.
Prediction ATS: Arizona
Minnesota Vikings (+13) at Seattle Seahawks
Christian Ponder has given the Vikings a chance to win since returning as the starter, leading to a victory on Thursday in Week 10. Recently, the Seahawks have let lesser teams like the Rams and Buccaneers stick around, so Minnesota might be able to keep the contest within double-digits.
Prediction ATS: Minnesota
San Francisco 49ers (+3) at New Orleans Saints
Until the Saints fail to cover at home, it doesn’t make much sense to bet against them. In five games at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, the Saints have won by an average of 20 points. Against Drew Brees, Colin Kaepernick will have to put up some big numbers, and that’s something he hasn’t be able to do consistently in 2013.
Prediction ATS: New Orleans
Green Bay Packers (+5) at New York Giants
The Giants have still struggled on offense during their three-game winning streak, but the Packers are not a good team without Aaron Rodgers. Now, they are down to their third-string quarterback in Scott Tolzien, who threw two interceptions last week. He could have a lot of trouble with a defense that has been one of the best in football of late.
Prediction ATS: New York
Kansas City Chiefs (+8) at Denver Broncos
The Broncos may be the best team in the NFL, but they haven’t been as dominant since the first quarter of the season. The Chiefs still haven’t lost a game, and they should be able to stay within a touchdown against a hobbled Peyton Manning.
Prediction ATS: Kansas City
New England Patriots (+2.5) at Carolina Panthers
No team has played as well as the Panthers in the last five games. They haven’t lost and have easily covered each betting line. New England had their best offensive performance of the 2013 in their last contest, but they’ve been inconsistent on that side of the ball this year. The Patriots could have a lot of trouble with the No.2 defensive unit in football.
Prediction ATS: Carolina