Several games on the Week 13 schedule will have a significant impact on the playoff picture, as eight contests feature two teams that lead their division or are no more than one game out of a postseason spot. The betting odds at Las Vegas casinos have eight teams favored by a field goal or less, and no team is favored by double-digits.
The underdogs got the better of the favorites in Week 12, covering nine of the 15 betting lines. Below are picks against the spread for every game in Week 13.
Chicago Bears (+7) at Detroit Lions
The Lions have been exposed in their last two games, and they’ll have trouble winning by a touchdown with their anemic offense. Detroit hasn’t scored more than 24 points in a game since Week 1, and they haven’t scored a touchdown in either of their last two games. Chicago has one of the league’s worst defenses, but they’ve surrendered just 13 points in each of their last two games, and they should keep things close on Thanksgiving.
Prediction ATS: Chicago
Philadelphia Eagles (+3) at Dallas Cowboys
With Mark Sanchez at quarterback, the Eagles are not as good as the Cowboys. While he can still lead Philadelphia to the playoffs, the quarterback will have a difficult time winning on the road against one of the NFC’s best teams. Sanchez has thrown two interceptions in three of the last four games, while Romo ranks second in the NFL in passer rating. The combination of Romo and DeMarco Murray should prove to be too much for Philadelphia.
Prediction ATS: Dallas
Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) at San Francisco 49ers
The Seahawks had a big win against the Cardinals in Week 12, but it won’t be easy for them to beat the 49ers. Seattle is a different team on the road, where they’ve lost lost three of five games in 2014. Russell Wilson has performed poorly in San Francisco, and he could have another bad game against the team that allows the lowest passer rating in all of football.
Prediction ATS: San Francisco
Washington Redskins (+9.5) at Indianapolis Colts
The Redskins are clearly struggling if they’re replacing Robert Griffin III with Colt McCoy. A win for Washington would be one of the biggest upsets of the season, and Indianapolis has covered the point spread in every victory.
Prediction ATS: Indianapolis
Tennessee Titans (+6.5) at Houston Texans
The Texans won in Tennessee earlier this season by two touchdowns, and there’s little reason to believe they won’t reproduce a similar result. Arian Foster was back at practice on Wednesday, and the Titans' league-worst rushing defense will even have trouble if backup Alfred Blue gets a majority of the carries. Tennessee hasn’t won since Week 6, and J.J. Watt could give rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger some trouble.
Prediction ATS: Houston
Cleveland Browns (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills
Playing at home might not do much for the Bills, who are 2-3 at Ralph Wilson Stadium in 2014. Cleveland has been undervalued on the road, covering the last three point spreads as a road underdog, via Odds Shark. The Bills are 0-4 against the spread in their last four home games, and Sunday could extend that losing streak to five.
Prediction ATS: Cleveland
San Diego Chargers (+6) at Baltimore Ravens
While the Chargers looked to be an early-season Super Bowl contender, they’ve been exposed in the difficult part of their schedule. After losing three in a row to winning teams, San Diego barely picked up home wins against Oakland and St. Louis. Of Baltimore’s seven wins, six have come by at least a touchdown, and they could get another big victory in Week 13.
Prediction ATS: Baltimore
New York Giants (-2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
New York’s six-game losing streak should finally come to an end with a visit to Jacksonville. All of the Giants’ losses have come to teams that have at least seven wins, and the Jaguars are just 1-10. New York is 3-0 against teams with a losing record, and they aren’t playing terribly, having lost their last two games by a total of just nine points.
Prediction ATS: New York
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Whenever it seems like the Bengals might be able to make a run in the AFC, they usually take a step back. Coming off two straight wins as an underdog, Cincinnati could be in prime position to get upset. The Bengals are 1-5 in their last six games as road favorites, and Tampa Bay is close to having a few more victories. The Buccaneers have lost two games in overtime and four other contests by just one score.
Prediction ATS: Tampa Bay
Oakland Raiders (+6.5) at St. Louis Rams
The Rams have been impressive against the toughest part of their schedule, beating the Broncos, 49ers and Seahawks. However, they haven’t been dominant, winning just one game by more than three points. The Raiders finally got their first win, and they’ve kept a lot of games close, losing five times by a touchdown or less. Oakland is 4-1 as a road underdog in 2014, and they should be able to keep the contest within seven points.
Prediction ATS: Oakland
New Orleans Saints (+4.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Saints had an impressive win against the Packers, but they’ve proven to be nothing more than a bad team in a bad division. New Orleans is 1-6 against teams with a winning record, and they will have trouble stopping the team that scored 94 total points in Weeks 8 and 9.
Prediction ATS: Pittsburgh
Carolina Panthers (+3) at Minnesota Vikings
With the betting line no bigger than a field goal, the Vikings are the smart pick. Despite their losing record, Minnesota hasn’t been bad in the last five weeks, winning twice and losing three games by 12 total points. The Panthers have just one victory since their 2-0 start, as well as five losses by at least 18 points.
Prediction ATS: Minnesota
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons
With Drew Stanton as the team’s starting quarterback, the Cardinals only scored 17 total points in their last two games. Despite their struggles on offense, they shouldn’t have trouble winning in Atlanta. All of the Falcons’ wins have come against teams in the league’s worst division, and they are 0-4 against teams that are above .500.
Prediction ATS: Arizona
New England Patriots (+3) at Green Bay Packers
These might be the two best teams in the NFL, but the Packers have the edge at home. Green Bay hasn’t lost at Lambeau Field since last year, and both of New England’s losses came on the road. The Packers have covered the last four betting lines as home favorites.
Prediction ATS: Green Bay
Denver Broncos (-2) at Kansas City Chiefs
As a member of the Broncos, Peyton Manning is undefeated against Denver’s division rival. Alex Smith will have trouble keeping up with Kansas City’s offense, and Jamaal Charles might not have a big day, facing the NFL’s No.2 run defense.
Prediction ATS: Denver
Miami Dolphins (-6.5) at New York Jets
The betting line quickly moved two points when it was discovered that Geno Smith would get the start at quarterback. It’s not likely that the league’s worst quarterback will lead New York to a victory over the 6-5 Dolphins, and 14 of the Jets’ last 15 losses have come by a touchdown or more.
Prediction ATS: Miami
Season Record: 91-84-1