Entering Week 5 of the 2014 NFL season, less than a third of the league has a winning record. The teams that are above .500 are expected to win, considering seven of the 10 teams with winning records are favored, according to the betting odds at Las Vegas casinos.
In Week 4, the favorites had the slight edge, covering seven of the 13 betting lines. Below are picks against the spread for every game in Week 5.
Minnesota Vikings (+8) at Green Bay Packers
The betting line has moved from 9.5 points since the start of Week 5, even though Teddy Bridgewater is a game-time decision for the contest. Whether it’s the rookie or Christian Ponder under center for the Vikings, Minnesota could have trouble against the Packers. Green Bay’s offense finally clicked last week, and that should continue when the team returns home.
Prediction ATS: Green Bay
Chicago Bears (+2.5) at Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are quickly proving that they are not as good as the team that won the NFC South in 2013, losing back-to-back games by 46 combined points. The Bears have been inconsistent, winning on the road twice, but losing both home games. Carolina is banged up on offense, and Chicago has several more playmakers, giving them the edge.
Prediction ATS: Chicago
Cleveland Browns (+2) at Tennessee Titans
Cleveland is 1-2, but both of their losses were decided on last-second field goals. Tennessee has lost each of their last three games by at least 16 points, and they could be in for an upset at home.
Prediction ATS: Cleveland
St. Louis Rams (+7) at Philadelphia Eagles
The Rams could have a lot of trouble in Philadelphia. The Eagles have the No.3 scoring offense in the league, and they’ve done so with a struggling LeSean McCoy. The running back could be due for a breakout performance against a team that ranks 30th in run defense.
Prediction ATS: Philadelphia
Atlanta Falcons (+4) at New York Giants
After struggling in the first two weeks, the revamped Giants’ offense finally seems to be clicking, and New York should be able to put up a lot of points. Matt Ryan struggles on the road, and he could have trouble against an improving pass defense.
Prediction ATS: New York
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10) at New Orleans Saints
The Saints remain the easiest bet in football, coming off a blowout loss on the road. They still have one of the best offenses in the league, and should bounce back at home against the worst team in the NFC South. New Orleans is 8-0-1 against the spread in their last nine games as home favorites, via OddShark, and the trend should continue on Sunday.
Prediction ATS: New Orleans
Houston Texans (+6) at Dallas Cowboys
Even though the two Texas teams have the same record, Dallas has the much more talented roster. With a banged up Arian Foster at running back and Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, the Texans could have trouble moving the ball. Houston has one of the NFL’s worst run defenses, and DeMarco Murray has been the No.1 rusher in 2014.
Prediction ATS: Dallas
Buffalo Bills (+7) at Detroit Lions
The last two weeks have shown that the Bills might not be ready to make the playoffs in 2014, but they can still be competitive against the Lions. Buffalo will get an upgrade at quarterback with Kyle Orton taking over for EJ Manuel, and Detroit’s offense might not be as explosive as usual, since Calvin Johnson is still battling an ankle injury.
Prediction ATS: Buffalo
Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Luck and the rest of the Colts’ offense have looked as good as any unit has in the last two weeks. Indianapolis might be one of the best teams in the AFC, but they have taken advantage of weak competition. The Ravens have allowed just over 12 points per game in the last three weeks, and the contest could be decided by a field goal or less, with both teams having a chance to win.
Prediction ATS: Baltimore
Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars
No team in the NFL has proven to be worse than the Jaguars, who sit at 0-4 and haven’t lost a game by less than 17 points. They were even defeated by 27 points in their one home game, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t get blown out again.
Prediction ATS: Pittsburgh
Arizona Cardinals (+7) at Denver Broncos
The Cardinals are 2-0 with Drew Stanton at quarterback, but the team could be exposed in Denver. Stanton completed less than 50 percent of his passes in a win over the Giants, and he was only slightly more accurate in Arizona's next victory. The Cardinals’ offense could have trouble keeping pace with Peyton Manning and the Broncos.
Prediction ATS: Denver
Kansas City Chiefs (+6) at San Francisco 49ers
Despite starting the year at 1-2, the 49ers remain one of the best teams in the league. They have a top defense, and can run the ball just about as well as anyone. The Chiefs are coming off two straight wins, but they could have trouble scoring against a team that can halt their rushing attack.
Prediction ATS: San Francisco
New York Jets (+6.5) at San Diego Chargers
The Jets are one of three teams that has yet to cover a spread this year. Geno Smith does not appear to be the answer at quarterback, but Rex Ryan will continue to start the second-year signal caller. The Chargers could end the season as one of the best teams in the AFC, and Philip Rivers should be able to take advantage of a poor secondary.
Prediction ATS: San Diego
Cincinnati Bengals (-1) at New England Patriots
After starting Week 5 as three-point favorites, the Patriots are home underdogs for just the second time since 2005. In the last five years, New England has lost just three games at Gillette Stadium. Tom Brady and the Patriots might not be what they once were, but they are still the best team in the AFC East and should be expected to win at home.
Prediction ATS: New England
Seattle Seahawks (-7) at Washington Redskins
Seven points is a lot to give a home team, but it’s reasonable when the favorite is the defending Super Bowl champs. The Seahawks shouldn’t have trouble scoring against the team that has allowed 82 points in the last two games. Washington scored a lot of points against two of the worst defenses in the league, but Kirk Cousins will have trouble when facing Seattle’s defense and the “Legion of Boom.”
Prediction ATS: Seattle
Season Record: 35-26