A week after three underdogs were able to win outright, several favorites on the upcoming NFL schedule have a legitimate chance to suffer losses. Teams that haven’t won in three weeks like the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks are heavy favorites, while the Kansas City Chiefs are the week’s biggest favorites with their backup quarterback under center.
Favorites covered the spread in seven of the 13 games in Week 8. Only three games on Sunday feature a betting line of less than a field goal.
Below are picks against the spread for every game in Week 9, as well as updated betting odds at Las Vegas and online sportsbooks. Betting lines and trends are courtesy of OddsShark.
Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Atlanta should get revenge from their Week 1 loss to the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay might have the worst home-field advantage in the league, and they are 1-9 in their last 10 home games against winning teams. Matt Ryan hasn’t had a bad game all season, and the Bucs’ offense won’t be able to keep up with the Falcons.
Prediction ATS: Atlanta
Jacksonville Jaguars (+8) at Kansas City Chiefs
The Jaguars are probably a bottom-four team in the NFL, while the Chiefs have a chance to win the AFC West. Kansas City should win somewhat comfortably, but they might have trouble winning by a large margin. Blake Bortles continues to thrive during garbage time, and he could end Sunday’s game with a touchdown for a backdoor cover. The Chiefs’ injuries at running back and Nick Foles starting over Alex Smith at quarterback could also make it difficult for them to win by more than a touchdown.
Prediction ATS: Jacksonville
Detroit Lions (+6) at Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings’ offensive line is finally coming back to bite them, and the resignation of offensive coordinator Norv Turner on Wednesday won’t help matters. Minnesota’s defense might help them beat Detroit, but it will be difficult for them to score enough to win by a touchdown. Matthew Stafford has played like a top quarterback over the last year, and he has a chance to help the Lions pull off the upset.
Prediction ATS: Detroit
Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) at New York Giants
The NFC East rivals share the same record, but Philadelphia has been much more impressive in the first half of the season. The Giants haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since Week 1, and their offense continues to be one of the NFL’s worst with just 19 points per game. The Eagles’ defense is one of the league’s best, and they could steal an important divisional win on the road. Philadelphia is 8-1 against the spread in their last nine road games against the Giants.
Prediction ATS: Philadelphia
Dallas Cowboys (-7) at Cleveland Browns
The Browns won’t get their first win of the season against the NFC’s top team. Cleveland is almost sure to lose, and the only question is by how much. Dallas has comfortably beaten all of the losing teams on their schedule, and the Browns have been blown out when facing above-average competition, meaning Sunday could be another big loss for Cleveland.
Prediction ATS: Dallas
New York Jets (+3.5) at Miami Dolphins
The Jets are 5-0 against the spread in their last six games against the Dolphins, and they have a chance to win outright in Miami. Ryan Fitzpatrick has righted the ship, at least somewhat, throwing just one interception in his last four games. The Dolphins have won two games in a row because of Jay Ajayi, but the running back could struggle since New York is tied for first in opposing yards per attempt. If Ryan Tannehill is forced to make too many plays, that could spell trouble for Miami.
Prediction ATS: New York
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2) at Baltimore Ravens
With arguably the NFL’s best rivalry, both teams seem to have close to an equal shot of winning whenever they get together. Seven of their last nine regular-season matchups have been decided by three points or less, and the better team is the underdog on Sunday. Backup quarterback Landry Jones is capable of winning in Baltimore, and the possibility that Ben Roethlisberger might start makes Pittsburgh the smart pick.
Prediction ATS: Pittsburgh
New Orleans Saints (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have a victory on the season, but they might be even worse than the winless Browns. Since they inexplicably shut out the Rams in the season opener, San Francisco has suffered six straight losses. All of those defeats have come by at least a touchdown, and five have come by 12 points or more. Colin Kaepernick and San Francisco’s offense has little chance to keep pace with Drew Brees and New Orleans.
Prediction ATS: New Orleans
Carolina Panthers (-3) at Los Angeles Rams
The Panthers are not the same team that went to last year’s Super Bowl. Following their big home win in Week 2, Carolina suffered a bad loss in Week 3, and the same could happen after they easily beat Arizona at home last week. Los Angeles has played well against good teams, defeating the Seahawks and Cardinals, and their defensive line could give Cam Newton trouble.
Prediction ATS: Los Angeles
Indianapolis Colts (+7) at Green Bay Packers
Since the talk of Aaron Rodgers’ struggles began, the quarterback has thrown for seven touchdowns and no interceptions in two games. He should have another big day against Indianapolis. Andrew Luck should have a bounce-back performance after the Colts were held to 14 points in Week 8, and though Green Bay has the edge, it should be a close, high-scoring affair.
Prediction ATS: Indianapolis
Tennessee Titans (+5) at San Diego Chargers
The Titans have the better record, but the Chargers are the better team. Having beaten Atlanta and Denver in recent weeks, San Diego should be able to win by a touchdown, as long as they don’t shoot themselves in the foot with a bad mistake late in the game.
Prediction ATS: San Diego
Denver Broncos (PK) at Oakland Raiders
The Raiders might be ready to return to the playoffs for the first time in 14 years, but they still have issues that will prevent them from beating the league’s top teams. Oakland committed the most penalties in history in Week 8, and they lead the NFL with 10.8 penalties per game. That will be difficult to overcome against Denver and arguably the league’s best defense. The Broncos have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 games.
Prediction ATS: Denver
Buffalo Bills (+7) at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is still one of the NFC’s best teams, but their offensive line has prevented them from being as good as they’ve been in recent years. Buffalo presents a difficult matchup for the Seahawks since no team has more sacks than the Bills. The Seahawks have allowed two straight 100-yard rushers, and Buffalo running back LeSean McCoy might return from his hamstring injury to have a big game. Seattle’s defense still gives them the edge at home, but Monday’s game might be closer than most expect it to be.
Prediction ATS: Buffalo
Season Record: 60-58-2