The U.S. nonfarm payroll report on Friday will highlight the economic calendar this week -- April 2 to 6 -- even though it will be released on Good Friday when the stock market is closed. Ahead of the employment report, significant data releases include the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index on Monday, the Federal Open Market Committee's March 13 meeting minutes on Tuesday, and the ISM Non-manufacturing Index on Wednesday.
Elsewhere, market participants will be watching for global Purchasing Managers Index data. The European Central Bank and Bank of England will meet this week, as will central bankers in Russia and Poland. Within emerging markets, attention will be focused on China's PMI.
Below are other entries on the economic calendar:
3 a.m.* -- Euro zone: March PMI manufacturing.
3:30 a.m.* -- U.K.: March PMI manufacturing.
3:58 a.m.* -- Euro zone: Final PMI manufacturing for March.
5 a.m.* -- Euro zone: Unemployment rate for February.
5:30 a.m.* -- Euro zone: ECB Governing Council member Yves Mersch presents central bank's annual report in Luxembourg.
10 a.m. -- ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to improve to 53.5 in March from 52.4 in February.
10 a.m. -- Construction spending could rise 0.8 percent in February, driven by greater residential building, after falling 0.1 percent in January. The sector has been healing, and economists expect residential construction to add to gross domestic product growth in 2012 for the first time since 2005. Little change is expected in nonresidential construction spending or public expenditures.
12:35 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto (a voter on the FOMC this year) speaks on The Fed and The Economy: Striving for Stability.
9 p.m. -- St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (a nonvoter on the FOMC this year) speaks at Monetary Policy in a Global Setting: China and the United States conference at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
9 p.m.* -- China: Non-manufacturing PMI for March. Manufacturing PMI data will be released one day ahead of this report.
N/A* - Spain: 2012 budget presented to Parliament.
5 a.m.* -- Euro zone: Producer Price Index (PPI) for Febrary.
8 a.m.* -- Brazil: Industrial production for February.
10 a.m. -- Factory orders are expected to rise 1.4 percent month-on-month in February after a 1 percent fall in January. February's durable-goods report was already released, and orders expanded 2.2 percent. Nondurable goods orders should increase 1.5 percent, largely on pricing.
2 p.m. -- The FOMC minutes for the March 13 meeting should shed light on whether the Fed is considering more quantitative easing, or QE, by April, and also if there is widespread support for a sterilized QE. Economists expect most Fed officials to favor leaving open a number of options, but not to indicate another easing is imminent.
2 p.m. -- Vehicle sales in March are likely to remain strong, falling back only modestly to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 14.5 million in March. This report most likely will be a better representation of the actual underlying trend in auto sales, given that the figures for January and February were probably boosted by the unseasonably warm weather.
4:05 p.m. -- San Francisco Fed President John Williams (a voter on the FOMC this year) will present an economic briefing at a university symposium simulating an FOMC meeting.
2:55 a.m.* -- Germany: PMI services for March.
3 a.m.* -- Euro zone: PMI composite for March.
3:30 a.m.*-- U.K.: PMI services for March.
6:45 a.m.* -- Euro zone: April ECB interest-rate decision.
7 a.m. -- Mortgage Bankers Association mortgage index.
8:15 a.m. -- ADP employment change report should show that private-sector employment expanded by 200,000 in March, after a 216,000 increase in February. The ADP measure has been underperforming the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' gauge of private employment by roughly 25,000 on average per month.
10 a.m. -- ISM Non-manufacturing Index is expected to slip to 56.7 in March, after rising sharply to 57.3 in February.
10:30 a.m. -- Crude inventories.
11 a.m. -- San Francisco Fed President John Williams (a voter on the FOMC this year) speaks to the San Francisco Planning and Urban Research Association as part of its business breakfast series.
3:30 a.m.* -- U.K.: Manufacturing production for February.
5 a.m.* -- Germany: Industrial production for February.
6 a.m.* -- U.K.: April BoE asset-purchase target.
6 a.m.* -- U.K.: April BoE interest-rate decision.
7:30 a.m. -- Challenger job cuts.
8:30 a.m. -- Initial jobless claims for the week ended March 31. This measure has continued its descent over the month, with the four-week moving average hitting cycle lows.
9:10 a.m. -- St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at the 13th annual InvestMidwest Venture Capital Forum in St. Louis.
2:45 a.m.* -- France: Trade balance for February.
8:30 a.m. - Nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise 213,000 in March, after advancing 227,000 in February. This will mark the fourth consecutive month the economy has added more than 200,000 jobs. Economists continue to see favorable weather conditions helping to boost the headline figure. Private payrolls should gain 230,000 in March. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 8.3 percent for the third straight month. No change is expected for average hourly earnings and hours worked.
3 p.m. -- Consumer credit is expected to increase $12 billion in February, which would be well below the $17.8 billion in January, but would mark the sixth consecutive month of expansion. The increase should be driven by auto and student loans.
Key earnings for the week:
Wednesday BMO: Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON)
Wednesday AMC: Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY)
Thursday BMO: CarMax Inc. (NYSE: KMX)
* Indicates non-U.S. event or release.
All listed times are Eastern Daylight Time. Dates and times are subject to change.
Source: Central banks, European Commission, Reuters, Market News, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.