The economic calendar is quite full this week, with most of the focus on the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. The Institute for Supply Management, or ISM, manufacturing index and the second estimate of U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product also will draw a lot of attention.
Retailers will report same-store sales results for May on Thursday. Large U.S. retailers set to release results include Macy's Inc. (NYSE: M), Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT), TJX Cos. Inc. (NYSE: TJX), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE: LTD), Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS), Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST), Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS), Ross Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: ROST) and Buckle Inc. (NYSE: BKE).
Major automakers, such as the Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) and General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM), are due to report U.S. sales for May on Friday. Total vehicle sales are likely to reach a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 14.5 million units in May. The rebound in auto sales is due partly to a normal cyclical recovery, pickup from stalled Japan supply chains, and unseasonably warm weather in the winter.
Elsewhere, we will see euro-zone, U.K., and China purchasing managers index releases. On the emerging-markets front, 1Q GDP data will be released in India, Poland, South Africa, and Brazil.
Central banks will also meet in Israel, Colombia, Turkey, Hungary, and Brazil. Economists expect Brazil to cut the Selic interest rate by 50 basis points.
Below are entries on the economic calendar from May 28 to June 1. All listed times are EDT.
U.S. government offices and markets closed on account of Memorial Day.
Italy -- Business confidence index for May.
Japan -- April unemployment rate.
Japan -- April real household spending.
8:30 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Midwest manufacturing index for April.
9 a.m. -- The S&P Case-Shiller home price index, which includes the 20-city composite for March and national index for 1Q, is likely to show moderating price declines. Economists expect the seasonally adjusted 20-city composite to increase 0.3 percent month-on-month in March, slightly outpacing the gain in February. This will leave prices down 2.6% year-on-year.
10 a.m. -- Economists expect the Conference Board's consumer confidence index to rise to 70.0 in May from 69.2 in April. Improvements in initial jobless claims and lower gasoline prices have resulted in an upside surprise in the University of Michigan's initial May report, and these factors should also push up the Conference Board's consumer confidence figure in May.
10:30 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas manufacturing index for May.
Germany -- April retail sales.
Germany -- Preliminary May consumer price index, harmonised index of consumer prices.
Sweden -- May manufacturing confidence indicator.
Norway -- March unemployment rate.
South Africa -- 1Q GDP.
7 a.m. -- Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications index for the week ending May 26.
10 a.m. -- Pending home sales -- tracking signed contracts on single-family homes, condos, and co-ops -- will likely hold steady in April, after rising for the past three months. MBA mortgage loan applications for purchase were up only 0.5 percent in April, which could suggest little upward momentum during the month. A flat reading on pending home sales would leave the series 21 percent higher than the year-earlier levels and consistent with the overall improvement in the housing market.
10:30 a.m. -- Dallas Fed services activity index for May.
1:20 p.m. -- Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher (a nonvoter on the Federal Open Market Committee this year) speaks on the Federal Reserve's operations and the economy at a community forum in Texas.
1:30 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley (a voter on the FOMC) will offer remarks on the regional economy in New York.
4:30 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren (a nonvoter on the FOMC this year) speaks at the Worcester (Mass.) Regional Research Center.
Spain -- Preliminary May HICP.
Sweden -- 1Q GDP.
Euro zone -- April M3.
Euro zone -- May consumer confidence index, industrial confidence index.
U.K. -- April mortgage lending, approval.
Japan -- April industrial production.
Belgium -- May CPI.
Ireland -- May unemployment rate.
All day -- Retailers will report same-store sales results for May.
7:30 a.m. -- Challenger, Gray & Christmas job-cut report for May.
8 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto (a voter on the FOMC this year) speaks on monetary policy and the economic outlook at the National Association for Business Economics industry conference, Making It in America: Manufacturing Matters.
8:15 a.m. -- Economists expect the ADP national employment report -- a measure of private employment -- to show the number of private jobs increased by 145,000 in May after rising by 119,000 in April. This year, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' measure of private employment has been outperforming ADP.
8:30 a.m. -- Initial jobless claims are likely to hold at 370,000 in the week ending May 26. Jobless claims have been moving sideways for the past few months after falling sharply at the turn of the year, suggesting moderating job gains.
8:30 a.m. -- Economists look for 1Q GDP growth to be revised down to 1.9 percent in the second estimate, from 2.2 percent in the first estimate, reflecting less inventory accumulation in the retail, wholesale, and manufacturing sectors. This would actually be a positive factor for 2Q stockpiling. Providing some offset, there could be a small upward revision to consumer spending and residential investment. Looking ahead, 2Q is expected to expand at a similar pace as the recovery remains sluggish.
9:45 a.m. -- Economists anticipate little change in the Chicago purchasing managers' index. The PMI should come in at 56.5 in May, following an unexpectedly sharp decline in April to 56.2, the lowest level since November 2009. Regional manufacturing surveys have been volatile in May, with the Empire State and Philadelphia Fed indices moving sharply in opposite directions.
11 a.m. -- Crude oil inventories for the week ending May 26.
China -- May PMI manufacturing.
India -- 1Q GDP.
Poland -- 1Q GDP.
Euro zone -- May flash HICP.
Italy -- May preliminary HICP, CPI.
All day -- Major automakers are due to report U.S. sales for May.
8:30 a.m. -- Nonfarm payrolls will likely expand by 150,000 in May, a marked deceleration from the three-month average gain of 252,000 from December to February. Economists believe this swing is largely due to the abnormally warm weather in the winter. The government sector might have shed 10,000 jobs in May as federal, state, and local governments all continue to cut head counts. This means private payrolls should rise 160,000. Economists expect the unemployment rate to be flat at 8.1 percent, average hourly earnings to increase 0.2 percent, and hours worked to hold steady at 34.5.
8:30 a.m. -- Personal income and spending should increase 0.3 percent in April. Job growth was sluggish in April and wages were flat, which does not bode well for compensation growth. Excluding energy and food, economists look for core personal consumption expenditure prices to climb 0.2 percent. That should result in a 1.9 percent increase year-over-year, just a touch below the Fed's long-run 2 percent target. Therefore, the inflation outlook shouldn't stand in the way of further Fed easing if growth slows materially in the second half of the year.
10 a.m. -- The ISM manufacturing index will likely moderate to 54.0 in May from 54.8 in April. Regional manufacturing indicators have had a mixed tone so far in May. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia survey fell into negative territory for the first time since September, while the Empire State index rebounded sharply following a soft reading in March. Meanwhile, the first published Markit flash PMI posted a decline to 53.9 from 56.0.
10 a.m. -- Construction spending is likely to increase 0.4 percent in April, following a 0.1 percent increase in March. The gain should be driven by residential building, reflecting the gain in starts during the winter. Elsewhere, there should be little change in nonresidential structures investment after declines over the prior few months. The public sector should continue to modestly reduce construction expenditures.
Brazil -- 1Q GDP.
Euro zone -- April unemployment rate.
Euro zone -- Final May manufacturing PMI.
U.K. -- May manufacturing PMI.
Italy -- April unemployment rate.
Italy -- May manufacturing PMI.
Spain -- May manufacturing PMI.
Germany -- May manufacturing PMI.
France -- May manufacturing PMI.
Sources: Central banks, European Commission, Reuters, Market News, Barclays Capital, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.