Economic Events: (GMT)

00:30     AUD       Building Approvals (MoM)                                         2.1%                      8.4%

Building Approvals (also known as Building Permits) measures the change in the number of new building approvals issued by the government. Building permits are key indicator of demand in the housing market. 

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.                          

 00:30    AUD       Trade Balance                                                             1.20B                     1.38B

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.                           

 13:30    USD       Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)                                     1.0%                      2.3%     

Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry. Productivity and labor-related inflation are directly linked-a drop in a worker's productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.           

 13:30    USD       Initial Jobless Claims                                                  373K                      377K

 13:30    USD      Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)                                                0.9%                      -2.5%                    

 13:30    USD      Continuing Jobless Claims                                         3565K                    3554K     

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.       

Unit Labor Costs measure the annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

15:00     USD      Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 - January 2014) is to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington DC. The testimony is in two parts; the first is a prepared statement, then the committee conducts a question and answer session. The Q&A portion of the testimony can see heavy market volatility for the duration.                                                      

Analysis and Recommendation: 

( close of Asian session )

NZD/USD

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis Feb 2, 2012 Forecast

NZD/USD is trading at 0.8238 after peaking at 0.8269 and then falling

The USD seems to be firming regardless of the weak economic reports earlier. Thursday the jobs numbers will be released in the US and will have a pronounced effect on the pair along with a statement by Federal Reserve Chairman.

Westpac  analyst stated today Our conclusion is that a new dynamic since July explains the strength of the NZD and there is strong evidence that this new dynamic is the increase in appetite for NZ government bonds.

Previous reports in the US showed that manufacturing activity in the Chicago area declined unexpectedly in January. The Chicago PMI declined to a seasonally adjusted 60.2, from a reading of 62.5 in December. Although this report only covers a small area of the US it is thought to be a key view of US manufacturing. Markets had forecast the PMI to rise to 63.0 in January.

NZD/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)
 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
0.8106
0.8160
0.8196
0.8250
0.8286
0.8340
0.8376

Fibonacci
0.8160
0.8194
0.8215
0.8250
0.8284
0.8305
0.8340

Camarilla
0.8208
0.8216
0.8225
0.8250
0.8241
0.8250
0.8258

Woodie's
-
0.8156
0.8188
0.8246
0.8278
0.8336
-

DeMark's
-
-
0.8313
0.8263
0.8223
-
-