NZD/USD

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis February 16, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

00:30     AUD      Employment Change                                    10.9K                     -29.3K                  

00:30     AUD       Unemployment Rate                                    5.3%                      5.2%     

Employment Change measures the change in the number of people employed. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending.

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. 

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD.              

13:30     USD      Building Permits                                             0.68M                   0.67M                  

 13:30    USD       Core PPI (MoM)                                              0.1%                      0.3%                     

13:30     USD       Housing Starts                                               0.68M                   0.66M                  

 13:30    USD       PPI (MoM)                                                        0.3%                      -0.1%                    

 13:30    USD      Initial Jobless Claims                                    364K                      358K                     

 13:30    USD       Continuing Jobless Claims                         3550K                    3515K

Initial and Continuing Jobless claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time or renewed during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.               

14:00    USD      Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 - January 2014) is to speaky on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions, in Washington DC                                                        

15:00     USD      Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index                 8.4                         7.3                         

 23:50    JPY        Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes                                       

 Analysis and Recommendation: (Close of  the Asian session )

NZD/USD eased to 82.80 US cents, from 82.96 cents on Tuesday.

Retail sales in New Zealand gained more-than-forecast last month, official data showed on Tuesday.

Statistics showed that retail sales rose to 2.2%, from 2.2% in the preceding month .

The New Zealand dollar slipped against the greenback as further delays in Greece's bailout package and credit rating downgrades of nine European nations sapped risk sentiment.

Investors flocked to safe-haven currencies such as the greenback and the yen late on Tuesday after rating agency Moody Investors Service cut the sovereign credit ratings on Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain.

It put Austria, France and the UK on notice. Sentiment was further dented after a European Union finance ministers' meeting on the Greek package was delayed.

Tuesday Economic Reports actual v. forecast

GBP

RICS House Price Balance 

-16%

 

-18%

 

-16%

 
 

AUD

NAB Business Confidence 

4

 
 
 

3

 
 

JPY

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10%

 

0.10%

 
 

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) 

3.8%

 

4.0%

 

4.0%

 
 

JPY

BoJ Press Conference 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

EUR

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

0.2%

 

0.0%

 
 

HUF

Hungarian CPI (YoY) 

5.5%

 

5.0%

 

4.1%

 
 

GBP

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

 

2.7%

 

3.0%

 
 

GBP

CPI (YoY) 

3.6%

 

3.6%

 

4.2%

 
 

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

5.4

 

-11.6

 

-21.6

 
 

EUR

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.1%

 

-1.2%

 

0.0%

 
 

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-8.1

 

-21.1

 

-32.5

 
 

GBP

BOE Inflation Letter 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

BRL

Brazilian Retail Sales (YoY) 

6.7%

 

7.6%

 

6.7%

 
 

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.6%

 

-0.5%

 
 

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.3%

 

-0.1%

 
 

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.8%

 

0.0%

 
 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule Feb 13-17

Feb 15  10:10  Sweden  Auctions T-bills

Feb 15  10:30  Portugal  Eur 1.5-1.75bn May & Aug T-bills

Feb 16  09:30  Spain  Obligacion auction

Feb 16  10.30  UK  Auctions 4.5% 2034 conventional Gilt

Feb 16  10:50  France  BTA/OATi auction

Feb 16  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Feb 21, 5Y Notes on Feb

22 & 7Y Notes on Feb 23

Feb 16  18:00  US  Auctions 30Y TIPS

NZD/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
0.8181
0.8228
0.8303
0.8350
0.8425
0.8472
0.8547

Fibonacci
0.8228
0.8275
0.8304
0.8350
0.8397
0.8426
0.8472

Camarilla
0.8345
0.8356
0.8367
0.8350
0.8390
0.8401
0.8412

Woodie's
-
0.8235
0.8318
0.8357
0.8440
0.8479
-

DeMark's
-
-
0.8449
0.8362
0.8327
-
-