Analysis and Recommendation: (close of the Asian session)

NZD/USD  gained close to one cent on optimism Greece will secure its second bailout package.

Making up lost ground when Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard tried to talk down the currency, the New Zealand dollar is trading at 0.8262 US cents from 81.85 at the close of asian markets on Thursday.

The kiwi dropped on Thursday after Dr Bollard kept the official cash rate at a record low 2.5 per cent, saying a strong dollar is constraining imported inflation and weighing on economic growth.

The dollar gained against most major rivals on Friday, with details on Greece's bond swap due as well as key U.S. jobs data. The ICE dollar index which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies traded at 79.21, from 79.090 late the previous day. Prerelease information shows that the US jobs data today will be very positive.

The deal is done, finally. Greece finished their debt swap with private creditors. Bondholders representing some 85% of Greece's outstanding private-sector debt, well above the government's minimum threshold, have agreed to the swap, easing pressures on the eurozone.

Australia posted a seasonally-adjusted trade deficit of 673 million Australian dollars ($717.2 million) in January, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Friday. Economists had been expecting a surplus of A$1.5 billion

China's consumer price index rose at a weaker-than-expected rate of 3.2% in February from the same month a year earlier, according to data released Friday. The CPI print is lower than the 3.4% expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and FactSet Research, and is sharply lower than the 4.5% increase seen in January. The producer price index for February came in at 0%, also weaker than expected and slowing from January's 0.7% year-on-year increase

In America:

U.S. employers announced workforce reductions totaling 51,728 during February, down 3.3% from January levels, according to the latest job-cut report released Thursday by global outplacement firm Challenger.

Jobless claims in the U.S. rose to the highest level in five weeks, climbing by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 362,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. Markets had estimated claims would rise to 355,000 in the week ended March 3. Continuing claims - payments to people already approved for jobless benefits - increased by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 3.42 million in the week ended Feb. 25. 

Household debt edged up 0.3% in the fourth quarter, the Fed reported in its flow-of-funds report, as consumer credit surged at a 7% annualized rate. Household debt had declined for 13 consecutive periods before the slender fourth-quarter advance.

The Fed is considering a new form of sterilized quantitative easing that would allow asset purchases despite high oil prices, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal. Under the new approach, the Fed would print new money to buy long-term mortgage or Treasury bonds but effectively tie up that money by borrowing it back for short periods at low rates. The aim of such an approach would be to relieve anxieties that money printing could fuel inflation later, a fear widely expressed by critics of the Fed's previous efforts to aid the recovery.

In northern America, the Canadian Central Bank held rates today at 1% following the lead of banks around the world.

In Europe:

The Greek government will announce early Friday the results of investors' participation in the country's ambitious debt-restructuring plan. More than 75% of private creditors have agreed to participate in Greece's debt swap deal, the Associated Press reported Thursday, citing an unnamed Greek government official close to the situation.

The Bank of England announced their current rate decision which was as expected to hold rates. No new additions to their monetary easing policies announced in February.

The European Central Bank committee held lending rates at the current rate of 1% and made no comments on any additional lending policies.

ECB President Draghi said in his monthly press conference in Frankfurt on Thursday that the central bank's long-term refinancing operation has had a positive effect on markets and sentiment in the euro zone but that all non-standard measures are temporary. He also said that the three-year LTROs have been an unquestionable success.

In a later presentation, ECB President Mario Draghi said higher-than-expected energy prices, along with increases in various state-administered prices, meant that inflation is expected to remain above 2% in 2012, with upside risks prevailing. The central inflation forecast for 2012 is now 2.4%, up from 2% three months ago, Mr. Draghi said.

At the same time, ECB forecasters now expect the bloc's economy to shrink by 0.1% this year. For 2013, the ECB now expects growth of 1.1%, compared with a prior forecast of 1.3%.

Prices for Italian government bonds jumped and Spanish bonds also rose Thursday, sending yields lower on expectations Greece will successfully complete its voluntary debt swap with private investors. Italy's 10-year bond yield fell 0.20

German production climbed 1.6% from December. Economists were expecting an increase of 1.1% in the euro zone's largest economy. 

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Economic Releases actual v. forecast

Mar. 09

00:30

 

AUD

 
 
 

Trade Balance 

-0.67B

 

1.51B 

 

1.33B 

 
 

 

01:30

 

CNY

 
 
 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

3.2%

 

3.6% 

 

4.5% 

 
 

 

01:30

 

CNY

 
 
 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

0.1%

 

0.0% 

 

0.7% 

 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Mar. 08

01:00

 

KRW

 
 
 

South Korean Interest Rate Decision 

3.25%

 

3.25% 

 

3.25% 

 
 

 

06:30

 

EUR

 
 
 

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 

-0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.2% 

 
 

 

08:15

 

CHF

 
 
 

CPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.4% 

 
 

 

12:00

 

GBP

 
 
 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50%

 

0.50% 

 

0.50% 

 
 

 

12:45

 

EUR

 
 
 

Interest Rate Decision 

1.00%

 

1.00% 

 

1.00% 

 
 

 

13:15

 

CAD

 
 
 

Housing Starts 

201K

 

199K 

 

198K 

 
 

 

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 

Initial Jobless Claims 

362K

 

350K 

 

354K 

 
 

 

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3416K

 

3385K 

 

3406K 

 
 

 

13:30

 

EUR

 
 
 

ECB President Draghi Speaks 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

14:00

 

CAD

 
 
 

Interest Rate Decision 

1.00%

 

1.00% 

 

1.00% 

 
 

Upcoming Economic Events

Mar. 10 Tentative            CNY       Chinese Trade Balance                                                 -8.2B                      27.3B

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

Mar. 11 23:50                    JPY         CGPI (YoY)         

The Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) measures the change in the selling prices of goods purchased by Japanese corporations. The CGPI measures the change in the rate of inflation in Japan from the perspective of the manufacturer and is correlated with consumer price inflation.            

                23:50                    JPY         Core Machinery Orders (MoM)

Core Machinery Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders placed with machine manufacturers, excluding ships and utilities. It is a key indicator of investment and a leading indicator of manufacturing production.

Mar. 12 05:00                    JPY         Household Confidence               

Household Confidence rates the relative level of overall economic conditions.

                 19:00                   USD       Federal Budget Balance

The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government's income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus; a negative number indicates a deficit.                              

                21:45                    NZD       FPI (MoM)

The Food Price Index (FPI) measures the change in the cost of food and food services purchased by households.

 

NZD/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
0.8141
0.8177
0.8209
0.8245
0.8277
0.8313
0.8345

Fibonacci
0.8177
0.8203
0.8219
0.8245
0.8271
0.8287
0.8313

Camarilla
0.8222
0.8229
0.8235
0.8245
0.8247
0.8253
0.8260

Woodie's
-
0.8176
0.8207
0.8244
0.8275
0.8312
-

DeMark's
-
-
0.8295
0.8254
0.8227
-
-