Analysis and Recommendation: (close of the Asian session)

The NZD/USD  reduced losses through the local trading session on optimism Europe's sovereign debt woes are receding and after government figures showed the local current account deficit narrowed in the tail-end of last year. Positive economic data, is the obvious driver today for the kiwi, as the global markets are worried about a slowdown in China, which is hurting all of the commodity currencies. New Zealand depends on Chinese trade for a large part of its economy.

The kiwi rose to 81.89 US cents at 5pm from 81.66 cents at 8am, paring its loss from yesterday when it traded at 82.44 cents.

The NZD fell yesterday after BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company, warned Chinese demand for iron ore was flattening out, and dairy prices on Fonterra Cooperative Groups online trading platform dropped 4.5% to an eight-month low.

New Zealand government figures showed a narrower current account deficit of $2.09 billion than expected in the three months ended December 31, amid record exports of dairy products and smaller dividends paid out to foreigners. The annual gap shrank to $8.3 billion, or 4% of gross domestic product.

Tomorrow's fourth-quarter GDP figures, which are expected to show New Zealand's economy grew at a pace of 0.6% in the period.

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Economic Events and Reports March 20, 2012 actual v. forecast

Mar. 20

 

AUD

 
 
 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 

CHF

 
 
 

Industrial Production (QoQ) 

7.9%

 

0.4% 

 

-2.0% 

 
 

 

 

GBP

 
 
 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.4%

 

2.4% 

 

2.6% 

 
 

 

 

GBP

 
 
 

CPI (YoY) 

3.4%

 

3.4% 

 

3.6% 

 
 

 

 

GBP

 
 
 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-8

 

-5 

 

-3 

 
 

 

 

USD

 
 
 

Building Permits 

0.72M

 

0.69M 

 

0.68M 

 
 

 

 

USD

 
 
 

Housing Starts 

0.70M

 

0.70M 

 

0.71M 

 
 

 

 

NZD

 
 
 

Current Account 

-2.76B

 

-2.83B 

 

-4.75B 

 
 

Economic Events Scheduled for March 21, 2012 affecting AUD, NZD and JPY

00:50     JPY        Trade Balance                                                                                                

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

13:30     USD      Initial Jobless Claims                     

13:30     USD      Continuing Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Mar 22  10:10  Sweden  I/L bond auction

Mar 22  10.30  UK  Auctions 0.625% 2042 I/L Gilt

Mar 22  15:00  US

Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Mar 27, 5Y Notes on Mar

28 & 7Y Notes on Mar 29

 

NZD/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
0.8031
0.8085
0.8136
0.8190
0.8241
0.8295
0.8346

Fibonacci
0.8085
0.8125
0.8150
0.8190
0.8230
0.8255
0.8295

Camarilla
0.8159
0.8169
0.8178
0.8190
0.8198
0.8207
0.8217

Woodie's
-
0.8084
0.8136
0.8189
0.8240
0.8294
-

DeMark's
-
-
0.8216
0.8177
0.8111
-
-