Forex Technical Update
The NZD/USD continues to confirm further downside risk. The 1H chart shows a market that broke below an important support cluster at 0.7735. Then after reaching the range-breakout projection at 0.7645, the market rallied back toward the broken range, tested the 200SMA. Price failed to rally above the 200SMA and a sling shot is developing to the downside. Note that the RSI failed to break back above 60, and is falling back to 30, a sign of persistent bearish momentum. A measured move using the previous downsing pivoted from the high of the recent swing, targets 0.7520.
The 4H chart shows fibonacci retracement levels of the rally from 0.7368 to 0.7868. The 61.8% retracement, which is reinforced by the pivot area seen Nov 28, resides at in the 0.7560-0.7570 area. This could be first short-term support below 0.7520. Below 0.75, we open up the 0.7368 low from Nov. 25.