Economic Events: (GMT)

See details of all economic events in the daily forecasts.

AUD-NZD Calendar

Jan. 30  21:45     NZD       Building Consents (MoM)     8.0%                      -6.4%                    

Jan. 31  00:30     AUD       NAB Business Confidence     2                             

Feb. 01 00:00     AUD      HIA New Home Sales (MoM)     6.8%                     

                00:30     AUD       House Price Index (QoQ)     -0.60%                 -1.20%                

                21:45     NZD      Employment Change (QoQ)     0.2%                     

                21:45     NZD       Unemployment Rate     6.6%                     

Feb. 02 00:30     AUD       Building Approvals (MoM)     2.1%                      8.4%                     

                00:30     AUD      Trade Balance     1.20B                     1.38B

USD Calendar

Jan. 30  13:30     USD       Core PCE Price Index (MoM)     0.1%                      0.1%                     

                13:30     USD      Personal Spending (MoM)     0.2%                      0.1%  

                13:30     USD      Employment Cost Index (QoQ)     0.4%                      0.3%

                14:45     USD       Chicago PMI     63.0                        62.5                       

                15:00     USD      CB Consumer Confidence     68.2                        64.5 

Feb. 01 13:15     USD       ADP Nonfarm Employment Change     190K                      325K 

                15:00     USD       ISM Manufacturing Index     54.5                        53.9

Feb. 02 13:30     USD      Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)     1.0%                      2.3%                     

                13:30     USD      Initial Jobless Claims     373K                      377K   

                13:30     USD      Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)     0.9%                      -2.5%  

                13:30     USD       Continuing Jobless Claims     3565K                    3554K  

                15:00     USD       Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

 Feb. 03  00:15     USD      FOMC Member Fisher Speaks 

                13:30     USD      Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)     0.2%                      0.2%

                13:30     USD      Nonfarm Payrolls     150K                      200K                     

                13:30     USD      Unemployment Rate     8.5%                      8.5%                     

                13:30     USD       Private Nonfarm Payrolls     170K                      212K  

                15:00     USD      ISM Non-Manufacturing Index     53.2                        52.6

 Historical

Highest: 0.8816 USD on 31 Jul 2011.

Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.

Lowest: 0.6619 USD on 07 Jun 2010.

Rule:

NZD/USD: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictablilty.

NZD/USD

NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis Jan. 30- Feb. 3, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

NZD/USD is trading at 0.8247 +0.0031 (+0.38%)

The U.S. dollar fell against all currency partners this week on the FOMC statements and weak economic data.  Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said the economy could withstand shocks from abroad, which fueled demand both internally and externally for the country's dollar.

New Zealand's economy is going OK, and certainly some of the individual sectors of the country are doing quite well. Concluded the comments.

We should start to see offshore demand for kiwi dollars.

The Good:

 US Durable Goods orders in Dec surprise to upside but how much was pulled forward from 2012 due to 12/31 expiration of full depreciation expensing?

 Jan US confidence rises to best since Feb '11

 Richmond and KC manufacturing survey's both rise

The Bad:

Q4 US GDP rises 2.8%, a touch below expectations but nominal GDP gains just 3.2%, the weakest since Q3 '09. If deflator was in line with expectations, Real GDP would have been up just 1.3%. Real final sales up just .8% vs. 3.2% in Q3

 Initial Jobless Claims normalize at 377k after holiday distorted 356k last week

 Inflation expectations within UoM rise to 3.3%, the most since Sept and remains above the 20 yr avg of 3.0%. Expectations also rise to multi month highs in TIPS market

 New Home Sales remain weak, prices fall 12.8% y/o/y

 FOMC stretches out zero rates until late 2014, US$ resumes downward trend against everything. Fed destroying the price mechanism as if interest rates are artificially priced, what are assets really worth? If we don't know what assets are really worth, how can capital be efficiently allocated?

There are significant reports due out this coming week, in Australia, New Zealand, and the US. We should see the USD pick up some of its strenght this week as the Fed statement becomes the past.

Upcoming Sovereign Bond Sales Dates

Jan 30  10:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

Jan 30  10:10  Norway  Nok 4.0bn 5.0% May 2015 bond

Jan 30  11:00  Belgium  OLO Auction

Jan 30  12:00  Norway  Details bond auction on Feb 06

Jan 31  10:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills

Jan 31  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Feb 07

Feb 01  10:10  Sweden  Auctions T-bills

Feb 01  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn 2.0% Jan 2022 Bund

Feb 01  10:30  Portugal  Eur 0.75-1.0bn 3M T-bill

Feb 01  10.30  UK  Auctions 5.0% 2025 conventional Gilt

Feb 01  15:30  Sweden  Details nominal bond auction on Feb 08

Feb 01  16:00  US

Announces details of 3Y Notes on Feb 07, 10Y Notes on Feb

08 & 30Y Bonds on Feb 09

Feb 02  09:50  France  OAT Auction

Feb 02  10.30  UK  Auctions 0.125% 2029 I/L Gil

NZD/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)
 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
0.8104
0.8142
0.8165
0.8203
0.8226
0.8264
0.8287

Fibonacci
0.8142
0.8165
0.8180
0.8203
0.8226
0.8241
0.8264

Camarilla
0.8171
0.8176
0.8182
0.8203
0.8193
0.8199
0.8204

Woodie's
-
0.8138
0.8157
0.8199
0.8218
0.8260
-

DeMark's
-
-
0.8214
0.8197
0.8153
-
-