Three major oil agencies have released their latest outlooks on global oil demand. The US official DOE/EIA, based on a +3% global GDP growth assumption in 2011, expected oil demand to increase to 88.23M bpd in 2011, up +1.16M bpd or +1.3% from last year. Again, much of the gain would be driven by Chinese demand. For 2012, oil consumption will rise to 89.62M bpd, up +1.39M bpd or +1.6% from 2010, based on a downwardly revised GDP growth of +3.1%.
According to the OPEC, global oil demand will rise +0.9M bpd, or +1.0%, to 87.8M bpd in 2010, and then by +1.2M bpd, or +1.4%, to 89.0M bpd in 2012. Demand in advanced economies has declined 'as a result of slowing economic momentum, particularly in the EU'. The cartel also warned that 'uncertainties in the world economic outlook for the coming year have increased due to the challenges facing the OECD economies'.
The IEA forecast global oil demand will rise +0.9M bpd, or +1.0%, to 89.8M bpd in 2010, and then by +1.3M bpd, or +1.5%, to 90.5M bpd in 2012. According to the agency, Libya's oil output was 0.35M bpd in October. The progress of resumption of oil facilities after the civil war 'is on a far faster track than initially anticipated'.
On the macro front, the BOE left the Bank rate at 0.5% and the asset buying program at 257B pound. Final German CPI stayed at 0% and +2.5% on monthly and annual basis respectively. In China, trade surplus expanded to $17B in October from $14.5B a month ago. The growth missed expectations of $26.3B as growth in exports moderated more rapidly than expected while growth in imports came in faster than expected. Exports rose +15.9% y/y in October while import growth accelerated to +29.2% during the month. The US report later today will probably show a modest widening in trade deficit to $46.1B in September from $45.6B a month ago. Initial jobless claims probably increased +3K to 400K in the ended November 5.