OPEC poised to keep oil supply steady as price firm

Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi has yet to arrive in Angola ahead of Tuesday's meeting but he has already made clear he believes the price is right and he sees no need for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to adjust supply.

Speaking on Sunday, other ministers also took the view they should stick with targets in place since last December.

There will be no change in OPEC supply of crude oil. OPEC will not reduce supply and it will not increase supply, Algerian Energy and Mines Minister Chakib Khelil told reporters in Algiers before leaving for Luanda.

I don't think so, Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani said on his arrival in Luanda when asked whether OPEC needed to adjust its supply ceiling.

OPEC delegates speaking on condition of anonymity reinforced the impression Tuesday's meeting should be swift and without major debate.

The price is right, said one.

This will be a meeting with no surprises. It will be straightforward. Everybody wants to arrive and leave with minimum fuss. I don't expect any change, said another.

Delegates also said the Iranian and Kuwaiti oil ministers would not attend Tuesday's meeting, leaving two of the 12 OPEC members represented at delegate rather than ministerial level.

OIL PRICE JUST RIGHT

Benchmark U.S. crude futures have slipped from a year-high of $82 a barrel struck in October, but at above $73 a barrel, they are close to the range Naimi and others in OPEC have said is enough for producers to turn a profit and not too high for consumers, smarting from a global recession.

The (meeting) will not lead to any change in production, Saudi-owned al-Hayat newspaper on Friday quoted Naimi, minister for the world's biggest oil exporter, as saying.

The current price is wanted by all. We are not alone in wanting it, but also those with alternatives and oil difficult to extract. And the oil price of $75 to $80 is something we all want.

Oil fell toward $30 a barrel in December last year, spurring the producer group to announce a record cut of 4.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from production in September 2008.

Officially that reduction, representing around 5 percent of oil demand, is still in place, although OPEC's compliance with the target has fallen from historic highs of around 80 percent to roughly 60 percent now as the oil price has rallied.

Some have said Tuesday's OPEC meeting should make the case for tighter compliance.

What I'll be requesting and I expect others to do also is for countries to observe their quota and not to flood the market with crude that there is no demand for, Iraq's Shahristani told reporters.

He also said a huge increase in Iraqi supply following auctions to bring in international investment was not imminent.

OPEC still might need to act to reduce excess supply early in 2010, Washington-based consultancy PFC Energy said.

In a report at the weekend, it said OPEC might have to cut by 1 million bpd early in 2010 if weak demand led to a further rise in oil stockpiles, although it did not anticipate a reduction would be agreed in Luanda.

Some members of OPEC would be more comfortable with no action and current price levels than others.

Core Gulf OPEC producers, led by Saudi Arabia, are on course to rack up fiscal surpluses after prices outperformed conservative budget assumptions.

The kingdom is estimated to need only around $50 a barrel to balance its books and avoid deepening foreign debts, compared with more than $80 for Iran and around $100 for Venezuela.

(For graphics showing inventory levels and OPEC spare capacity, please click on

http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/129/OIL_OPCSTK1209.gif

http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/129/OIL_OPCSRP1209.gif

For graphics showing compliance, please click on http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/129/OIL_OPCPRD1209.gif http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/129/OIL_OPCOM1209.gif)

(Additional reporting by Simon Webb and Rania El Gamal in Luanda and Hamid Ould Ahmed in Algiers, writing by Barbara Lewis, editing by Carol Bishopric)