May 08 09 Non-Farm Payrolls (Apr) Actual -539k, Expected -590k, Previous -663k
Unemployment Rate (Mar) Actual 8.9%, Expected 8.9%, Previous 8.5%
Release Explanation: A statistic researched, recorded and reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics intended to represent the total number of paid U.S. workers of any business. The report excludes the following employees:
The NFP impacts the Market with huge volatility because of the constant revisions to the previous reporting periods. The accompanying Employment % number tends to be much more reliable in its monthly report. The Average Hourly Earnings will add to, or contain the impact of the number of jobs created. These 3 components go to make for explosive NFP Fridays.
“Outside of the Interest Rate Statement, this is the most important guide for US$ Traders planning for the weeks and months ahead as the Labor Market will indicate the potential strength of future economic growth. A strong economy usually equates to a strong currency,“ TheLFB-Forex.com Trade Team said.
TheLFB-Forex.com Trade Desk Thoughts: Nonfarm payroll employment continued to fall sharply in April and the unemployment rate rose from 8.5% to 8.9%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. However, the numbers were better than what the market was expecting.
Employment is considered to be a lagging indicator, TheLFB-forex.com Trade Team said. The general consensus is that employment will weaken even after the economy starts to recover, which is what happened after the 2001 recession ended. The numbers today fit in with what's been happening recently with the data; the rate of decline is slowing.
Just over 5.7 million jobs have been lost since the start of the recession in December 2007, with well over half of the decrease occurring in the last 6 months and with over two million of those losses occurring in the last three months. March was revised to show a steeper loss of 699,000 jobs. The unemployment rate rose to 8.9%, the highest since September 1983.
Average hourly earnings increased a modest $0.01, or 0.1%, to $18.52. That was up just 3.2% from one year ago, a sign that inflation isn't a threat.
Hiring last month in goods-producing industries fell by 207,000. Within this group, manufacturing firms cut 149,000 jobs. Construction employment was down 110,000 last month.
Service-sector employment plunged 269,000. Business and professional services companies shed 122,000 jobs, the sixth-straight six-figure loss.
Retail trade cut 47,000 jobs, while leisure and hospitality businesses added 15,000, being the first rise in the last few months. The government added 72,000 jobs last month, giving a big push forward for the NFP numbers. Additional support came from the death/birth model, which added more than +200K jobs
Forex Technical Reaction: S&P futures rose initially, but then dropped 4 points lower. In the currency market, the dollar weakened after the releases against the euro and the yen