May corn was trading down 3/4 of a cent late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look slightly positive today with a weaker US dollar and a bounce in gold. Traders see expanding US and world ending stocks for the 2012/13 season and the extent of the stocks increase will be the focus of attention over the short-term. The USDA Outlook Forum supply/demand conference is today and tomorrow which is the first real look at the new crop season. If the USDA raises their planted acreage estimate to 94.5 million acres (from the 94 million in the baseline projections worked up in November) and also leave trendline yield at 164 bushels per acre, production could hit a record high 14.202 billion bushels. Even if one assumes an increase in usage of 500 million bushels for the new crop season, ending stocks would jump to 1.813 billion bushels. A 166 yield would push ending stocks towards 2 billion bushels. If one assumes that usage will increase by 500 million for the season, it will take a yield down at 154.6 bushels per acre to end up with fewer than 1 billion bushels. A yield which is 9.4 bushels per acre under trend has occurred in just 4 years of the past 21, and to expect below-trend yield for a third year in a row might be considered a bit of a stretch. However, dry soil conditions in parts of the western Corn Belt and northern plains have traders a bit nervous on the yield outlook. May corn closed sharply higher on the session yesterday but stayed inside of Tuesday's range. A general perception that monetary policy around the world will be easy in an attempt to spur growth helped to support a bounce in a wide range of commodity markets in recent days. China is the latest country to begin to lower interest rates and with China corn prices near record highs, traders do not see extended weakness in corn prices in the US. The market saw some weakness early in the session yesterday due to a negative tilt to outside market forces but the market held support and traded slightly higher on the day into the close. December corn saw choppy and two-sided trade and closed slightly higher.