July corn was trading 4 1/4 cents lower late in the overnight session. Outside market forces looked negative again today as weakness in China and global equity markets and fears of a slowing global economy persist. There were no deliveries this morning and none so far this month. There was nothing in the reports to prompt end user buying and the report even gave holders of old crop supply to second guess the plan to hold tight to supply. With the huge inversion, the market is indicating an eventual comfortable supply and the early plantings plus the availability of new crop wheat combined with news of an extra 50 million bushels in old crop ending stocks was enough to turn July corn lower. While the USDA may be very optimistic with their yield expectation, there is certainty no weather issues so far to counteract the call for record yields. July corn closed sharply lower on the session yesterday and saw the lowest close since March 16th. The USDA had enough bearish factors to drive futures lower early in the day with December corn pushing down to the lowest level since February 25th. The USDA pegged ending stocks for the 2011/12 season at 851 million bushels, up 50 million from last month and up about 100 million from trade expectations. Traders see US producers using more domestic wheat and even UK feedwheat imports into the East Coast as reasons for lower feeding. Brazil production was revised to 67 million tonnes from 62 million last month and second crop Brazil corn will soon be competing with US corn. World ending stocks came in at 127.5 million tonnes as compared with expectations at near 122 million. For the new crop season, the USDA pegged yield at a record high 166 bu/acre which pushed ending stocks to a whopping 1.881 billion bushels which is up from trade expectations near 1.71 billion. The record high yield was calculated by not using last years yield in their 20 year trend calculation and by raising the yield by 2 bu/acre due to early plantings. In the May report last year they used the trendline yield for the 1990 to 2010 seasons and the same years for the calculation this year. Total usage was pegged at 13.775 billion from 12.655 billion this season. Weekly export sales came in well below trade expectations at just 473,400 tonnes. A dry Midwest forecast ahead should spark active plantings and excellent growing conditions for the crops already planted.
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